Author: Admin

Economic Diplomacy: Key to Nandi-Ndaitwah’s Success in Namibia

Meet Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, first female President-Elect of Namibia. She will assume office on 21 March 2025 following her victory in the 27 November 2024 Presidential Elections. Being Namibia’s first female president is a landmark event with significant implications for the nation’s political and economic landscape. Her campaign’s emphasis on job creation and economic development through economic diplomacy addresses Namibia’s pressing challenges, notably high unemployment and economic inequality.

Campaigning under the political platform of South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) on the back of economic diplomacy, Nandi-Ndaitwah joins a league of notable but sparse presidential campaigns across the world, from developed to developing economies, that centered on economic diplomacy, emphasising international partnerships, trade, and economic reforms to drive development. This is uncommon yet deserving of interrogation. Can her narrow margin of victory of 57% be ascribed to her choice of campaign focus on economic diplomacy despite worse predictions? This remains to be seen. It is however instructive to note that SWAPO political decline set in with the 2019 elections when the party received 56% of the vote, down from a whopping 87% in 2014. SWAPO, which gained its base fighting against Apartheid in 1990, is seemingly losing support among youth voters, who are dissatisfied with low employment rates. 

A window to Netumbonomics

Madam President-Elect focused her campaign typically on job creation and economic development. A look at the economic components of her campaign manifesto will provide the lens through which her economic  ideology or Nebumbonomics could be examined. She pledged to invest N$85 billion to create 550,000 jobs over the next half-decade, targeting sectors such as agriculture, construction, and oil and gas. This initiative aims to reduce the youth unemployment rate, which is estimated to be over 50%. 

As means to achieving her job creation goal, her strategy involves leveraging Namibia’s natural resources to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) while ensuring that such investments align with national interests. By promoting value addition in sectors like mining and agriculture, she seeks to enhance local production and export capacity, thereby stimulating economic growth and job creation. 

Beyond job creation, there are other indications that Nandi-Ndaitwah’s presidential victory may be attributed to her emphasis on economic diplomacy, which resonated with the electorate. There are four additional reasons to consider as constituting the backbone of Netumbonomics, that powered her victory.

Firstly, her commitment to economic diplomacy aimed at attracting foreign investment to stimulate economic growth. By fostering international partnerships, she is seeking to enhance sectors like mining, tourism, and agriculture, thereby diversifying the economy and creating employment opportunities.

Secondly, she made a point out of addressing economic inequality. Namibia is classified as an upper-middle-income country by the World Bank but remains highly unequal, with 43% of the population living in multidimensional poverty as of 2021. Nandi-Ndaitwah emphasised the need for land reform and a fairer distribution of wealth. She drew from examples from elsewhere in Africa and global best practices in women empowerment, giving insights to a strategy that will invite through diplomacy, women with economic power around the world to inspire, motivate, and invest in Namibian women. Her appeal to voters seeking economic justice appears to have resonated well.

Thirdly, recent offshore oil and gas discoveries have the potential to significantly boost Namibia’s economy. Nandi-Ndaitwah’s focus on economic diplomacy included plans to utilize these resources to double the country’s GDP growth to 8% within a decade, promising improved livelihoods for Namibians.

Finally, as a seasoned politician with extensive experience in government, including a stint as Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Nandi-Ndaitwah’s economic diplomacy platform offered continuity and stability. Her leadership was perceived as a means to maintain peace and stability while implementing necessary economic reforms, which appealed to voters desiring a steady hand during transformative times.

While Namibia’s election of its first female President is a historical milestone, it is her decision to anchor her campaign on economic diplomacy that appears to be a game changer for the continent. Her victory represents a significant step toward gender equality in African leadership. It could be argued that what delivered her victory was more of her policy shifts and economic transformation agenda, more than the focus on economic diplomacy. Before comparing her strategy with those of contemporary political leaders across the world, it may be instructive to assert that her commitment to “radical shifts” in addressing poverty and unemployment suggests potential departures from previous policies. She focused on equitable wealth distribution and land reform as pointed out earlier. By prioritizing economic diplomacy, she aims to transform Namibia’s economy from one reliant on raw material exports to a more diversified and industrialized economy, enhancing resilience and sustainability.

Contemporary pacesetters on economic diplomacy as political strategy

There seems to be a thread that runs through a set of themes for political leaders that have anchored their campaign strategies on economic diplomacy, which may offer some clue on where Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is coming from. The themes across the campaigns have typically included global integration, infrastructure and industry, natural resources endowments, and regional leadership.

Candidates often emphasize strengthening their country’s position in global trade. Many, if not all of the examined campaigns promote FDI for large-scale development projects. The resource endowed nations amongst them have used economic diplomacy to attract ethical and sustainable investments while aiming to position their economies as regional economic hubs. Despite some variables, the campaigns generally show how economic diplomacy can be a powerful narrative, especially in countries seeking economic transformation and greater global influence.

Here is a paintbrush of notable presidential campaigns across the world that centered on economic diplomacy, emphasizing international partnerships, trade, and economic reforms to drive development, from which Nandi-Ndaitwah may have drawn inspiration.

Olusegun Obasanjo (Nigeria, 1999) Unlike Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah,     economic diplomacy was not Olusegun Obasanjo’s sole campaign theme. However, it was a cornerstone of his broader promise to restore stability, improve governance, and lay the foundation for economic growth in Nigeria. His approach was shaped by Nigeria’s economic challenges in the aftermath of military rule and his commitment to reestablishing Nigeria’s position in the global economic and diplomatic landscape.

Key aspects of the Obasanjo strategy include a focus on debt relief, emphasising his ability to engage with international financial institutions and foreign governments to address Nigeria’s crippling foreign debt. Upon election, his administration’s efforts led to significant debt forgiveness, which was a key part of his economic diplomacy. He made demonstrable efforts to reintegrate Nigeria’s economy into the Global Economy. Following years of isolation under military rule, Obasanjo’s campaign pledged to rebuild Nigeria’s reputation internationally. He highlighted his previous leadership experience, as military head of state in the period 1976–1979 and his global network, promising to attract foreign investment and improve trade relations.

It was clear from his consultations pre-election that if he undertakes economic reforms, international support will be easier to secure. Obasanjo’s platform therefore inevitably included promises to reform Nigeria’s economy through privatization, liberalization, and improved governance. This resonated with voters and the international community, positioning him as a candidate capable of modernizing Nigeria’s economy. His Advocacy for Regional Integration turned out to be a winning strategy as he also campaigned on leveraging Nigeria’s position as a regional leader in West Africa to strengthen economic ties and enhance trade within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Enjoying high personal credibility as he did at the time, Obasanjo’s international reputation as an advocate for African development lent credibility to his promises of fostering economic diplomacy. His  antecedents including his work with organisations like the United Nations and the African Leadership Forum and his post-election actions,  including extensive international outreach and reforms, reinforced the campaign promises centered on economic diplomacy.

Barack Obama’s (USA, 2008 & 2012) key focus was on economic recovery post-2008 financial crisis. He approached his economic diplomacy from the angle of  strengthening trade ties with emerging markets in Asia and Africa. The means to his goal was advocating for multilateral trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and promoting innovation and clean energy partnerships with Europe and China. The major outcome of his strategy was that it positioned the U.S. as a global economic leader during a period of economic uncertainty.

Narendra Modi’s (India, 2014 & 2019) main attention was on conomic growth, “Make in India,” and global investment. His economic diplomacy point of departure was promoting India as an investment destination through campaigns like “Make in India.” Strategically, he signed bilateral agreements with Japan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the U.S. for infrastructure and trade development while proactively participating in global forums like BRICS, G20, and the UN to bolster India’s economic positioning. His major deliverable was increased FDI inflows and global partnerships, though challenges like domestic economic inequality persist, as the gap between the rich and the poor grew wider.

Emmanuel Macron (France, 2017 & 2022) pitched his tent around liberal economic reforms and stronger EU integration. In terms of economic diplomacy, his angle was a push for stronger, unified EU economy through deeper market integration while he attracted foreign investment by proposing pro-business reforms of which an intentional strategy was labour market deregulation as he laid the foundation stones to strengthening trade relationships with Asia and pivoting a new Africa policy from the Anglophone economies. While Macron has so far  successfully positioned France as a global economic player, he continues as of 2025 to face domestic resistance to reforms and waning influence in Africa.

Joko Widodo (Indonesia, 2014 & 2019) was a proponent of global infrastructure and trade partnerships. His economic diplomacy strategic direction emphasised investments from China under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strengthened partnerships with Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. for manufacturing, R&D, and technology transfer. He mounted a strong advocacy for Indonesia as a hub for Southeast Asian trade, all of which resulted in improved infrastructure and trade opportunities. One critical downside though was criticisms of overreliance on foreign capital.

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s (Liberia, 2005) post-conflict reconstruction and economic rebuilding enjoyed enormous global goodwill. She strategically converted the goodwill into economic diplomacy, which garnered international aid and investment through partnerships, notably with the U.S., EU, and China. President Sirleaf promoted natural resource management reforms to attract ethical investment resulting in secured substantial foreign aid and investment, laying the foundation for Liberia’s economic recovery.

Moon Jae-in (South Korea, 2017) zeroed in on peace on the Korean Peninsula and economic revitalization, of which his economic diplomacy angle was advocacy for inter-Korean economic cooperation to attract investment and foster peace. Jae-in strengthened South Korea’s position as a technological and economic leader through global trade agreements. The outcome was a stabilised South Korean economy with significant expansion of its global partnerships.

Nana Akufo-Addo’s (Ghana, 2016 & 2020) key focus was on economic self-reliance and foreign investments while approaching economic diplomacy from the angle of strengthening of ties with China, the U.S., and EU nations for industrialization and infrastructure development. Genuine efforts were made to take the shine off aids with the launch of initiatives such as “Ghana Beyond Aid”. The efforts resulted in the boosting of Ghana’s reputation as an investment destination, especially in the mining and tech industries.

Conclusion

President-elect Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s victory and her focus on job creation and economic diplomacy hold the promise of significant positive changes for Namibia, provided that her administration can effectively implement the proposed strategies. Implementing her ambitious plans will require overcoming challenges such as securing the necessary funding, ensuring effective governance, and addressing potential resistance to reforms. Additionally, fostering a conducive environment for FDI while safeguarding national interests will be crucial.

Collins Nweke is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria, Institute of Managements Consultants, and Distingushed Fellow of the International Association of Research Scholars and Administrators, where he also serves in its Governing Council. He writes from Brussels, Belgium.

Ghana’s Mahama: Navigating Economic Challenges and Democratic Legacy

This week the good people of Ghana will continue adjusting to last weekend news of the return of John, not The Baptist, but Dramani Mahama, to the presidential villa. While this is understandably good news for his supporters, those that lined up behind incumbent Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, his opponent, are left to nurse their wounds. But did this come entirely as a surprise to them? It probably didn’t. I will tell you why in a moment. It certainly didn’t matter to objective watchers like me with no horse in this race except a desire to see the consolidation of democracy in a prominent West African nation. This is at a time when things are falling apart in the region and dominant regional players like Nigeria are struggling to hold the centre together.

Call it the day after. We can then begin to ask how this victory came about given that the same issues that led Ghanaians to sack Mahama in 2016 are same for renewing their faiths in him eight years later. So, where was Ghana then economically and politically? Where are they now; what has changed?

Let us begin with the present. As of election day in 2024, Ghana’s consumer inflation rose to 23.0% year-on-year, up from 22.1% in October. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by higher food prices. The market women of Makola, central Accra felt this especially in the prices of vegetables, yam, cassava, and plantains. However, the second quarter of 2024 saw Ghana’s economy grow by 6.9% year-on-year, the fastest rate since the Nana Akufo-Addo presidency. This growth was propelled by strong performances in the mining and quarrying sectors, with the gold sector expanding by 23.6%. The country equally restructured $13 billion in U.S. dollar bonds, effectively exiting a nearly two-year debt default. This restructuring reduced the nation’s debt by over $4 billion. This brings with it the prospect of positioning Ghana for a return to global capital markets.

While the nation’s debt was reduced, it could safely be said that the elections were held amid significant economic challenges. The high inflation linked to debt defaults were skilfully made electioneering issues. This leads one to ask if Ghanaians are quick to forget that in 2015,  Mahama’s government equally sought a $918 million bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy and address high debt levels.

Ghanaians may not be quick to forget. It might simply be that Mahama was a better political communicator with better packaged messaging than Bawumia and his New Patriotic Party. He may have been better at bringing on  issues that influenced voter sentiment at a time when many are seeking change due to rising living costs. Mahama dipped into his accomplishments as President from 2012 to 2017. He successfully emphasized his infrastructure development that focused on roads, schools, hospitals, and energy projects. He reminded voters of initiatives like the Atuabo Gas Processing Plant and expansion of ports and airports which modernised Ghana’s economy.

Tried as he could, Bawumia was unable to successfully shine the light on the energy crisis that enveloped Ghana under Mahama’s watch. Ghana faced a severe power crisis, the so-called Dumsor with frequent outages crippling businesses and causing pains to households.

On his part Mahama got the focus to rest on the efforts his administration invested in  to achieve energy mix. This includes thermal and renewable energy plants, to address the power crisis. His campaign was good at deploying contrast communication strategy. For instance while admitting that the economy was hard hit with declining prices of gold, cocoa, and oil, his team was quick to point to the fact that the fault lay with decline in global commodity prices and had nothing to do with  government policy or lack of it. To rub it in, they then end the messaging with a pointer to the early years of his administration when oil production boosted GDP.

Mahama drew attention to how he oversaw a relatively peaceful political environment and upheld Ghana’s democratic tradition. Despite mostly unfair criticisms, he told voters that he ensured free and fair elections in 2016, where he conceded defeat to Nana Akufo-Addo, solidifying Ghana’s reputation for political stability. He could not be blamed for exercising his bragging rights around investments in education including the Community Day Senior High School project, which improved access to secondary education; expansion of the National Health Insurance Scheme; and increased access to healthcare facilities.

While he can’t match the records of incumbent President in shuttle diplomacy, Mahama did not shy away from highlighting his key role in regional diplomacy, including efforts to mediate political crises in neighboring countries like Burkina Faso.

As the dust settles, the Bawumia team will be assessing their communication failure in not leveraging on some of the major scandals that docked Mahama. How on earth were they unable to convince voters that they can’t trust a guy involved in a contract to brand public buses with photos of Ghanaian presidents with a whopping $3.6 million. What about the GYEEDA Affair? The Ghana Youth Employment and Entrepreneurial Development Agency (GYEEDA) was implicated in the misappropriation of funds meant for youth employment programs. Yet the youths of Ghana were allowed by Bawumia to trust their faiths in the man’s hands! Again? How on earth did the Bawumia campaign miss the opportunity to paint all of the country black with the ghost of the SADA Controversy? The Savannah Accelerated Development Authority (SADA), established to develop Ghana’s northern regions, faced allegations of mismanagement and corruption involving millions of cedis. And then comes the Ford Expedition Gift Imbroglio! Mahama was accused of accepting a Ford Expedition vehicle from a Burkinabe contractor who had won lucrative government contracts, raising concerns about conflict of interest and ethical breaches.

From all indications, it appears the people of Ghana are fine to forgive economic mismanagement and persistent allegations of corruption preferring instead to settle for a legacy of focus on infrastructure development and commitment to democracy. His manifesto, Mahama’s First 120 Days Social Contract with the People of Ghana, was a fine read. The next four years will prove whether the people’s gamble with Mahama will pay off.

For the renewed presidency of John Dramani Mahama, which by the way, reminds us of the return of Donald Trump of the United States, the challenges facing him are humongous. But he has the parliamentary majority needed to push through his agenda. His legacy will be anchored on a number of policy areas of which analysts are now on the look out to asses his soon to be appointed cabinet. His appointments will give a window to his succes or failure in areas crucial in addressing Ghana’s current challenges while building on lessons from his previous tenure.

On debt management, who will be his point person in building on Ghana’s recent debt restructuring success by adopting prudent fiscal policies to prevent further accumulation of unsustainable debt? Mahama needs to improve revenue collection through tax reforms and combating tax evasion. Are there lessons that he’d pick from the tax reforms components of Tinubunomics? In controlling inflation, Africa will be on the look out for Mahama to deliver a template on successful measures to address rising inflation, particularly in food prices, by supporting local production and reducing dependency on imports.

If his Minister for Employment has no track records of expertise in youth employment through aggressive skills development programmes and projects and incentivizing private sector growth, particularly in industries like technology and manufacturing, he has beautifully set himself up to fail. Of course Mahama must do everything he can to rid himself of the ghosts of GYEEDA by not bringing close to him, anybody that resembles the crooks that misappropriated funds meant to give young people career prospects a decade ago

If you are no proponent of Economic Diversification, Mahama should not have you on the shortlist for consideration either as trade or economic portfolio. Ghana should have reduced yesterday its undue reliance on commodities like gold, cocoa, and oil. But if by tomorrow, Mahama pays more attention to investing in agriculture, renewable energy, and digital technology, Ghana will not easily forget his second coming.

It is expected that the President-elect will defend his credentials for infrastructure through his policy around sustainable energy solutions. Under him Ghana must expand its renewable energy capacity, through solar and wind to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and prevent future power crises and by so doing wave a final goodbye to the ghosts of Dumsor. While on it, he must strengthen public-private partnerships for energy infrastructure investments. In choosing his international partners for energy, he must keep away from Western leaders who’d preach to him the gospel according to jettisoning oil to embrace exclusively clean energy despite oil still supporting a significant chunk of the economy of Ghana. Amongst the friends he made while serving as a member of European and Pan African Parliaments’ Ad hoc Committee on Cooperation, he must know who to run away from and who to embrace as international partners willing and able to respects Ghana’s sovereignty and facilitate the provision of targeted subsidies to ensure affordable electricity for low-income households while promoting efficient energy use.

If his job description for Minister for Transport does not include proveable experience and expertise in managing investment in road and rail networks, he must withdraw and edit it. It is the imperative of Ghana’s time in history to enhance connectivity between rural and urban areas, promoting trade and economic activity. He must expand and modernize ports and airports to make Ghana a regional logistics hub. He did it before. He must do it again in his second coming.

A President Mahama must prioritise building on existing healthcare infrastructure by improving access to quality care, particularly in underserved rural areas. He must strengthen public health initiatives to address ongoing issues like malaria and rising non-communicable diseases. Strengthening of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to ensure universal coverage and address challenges like delays in claims payments should be a priority..

Building on his efforts up to 2016 and whatever accomplishments of his predecessor, President Mahama must accelerate efforts to make senior high school universally accessible and improve technical and vocational training to align with market needs.

The promise of constituting the leanest and most efficient government in the fourth Republic of Ghana is easy to say because lean government is the new trend. So, this President can’t listen to anyone who tells him to create more ministerial portfolios. He however must give consideration to refocusing existing portfolios and perhaps rename or merge some ministeries. For instance it might serve Ghana well to have a ministry for institutional reforms and digitisation into which ministeries with overlapping portfolios could be collapsed. Such a ministry could be tasked with strengthening  anti-corruption institutions like the Office of the Special Prosecutor and the Auditor-General’s office. It must facilitate policies around transparent procurement processes and punish financial mismanagement to rebuild public trust. His Year One accomplishment must include Public Sector Efficiency. This is as urgent as it is. Ghana should urgently show other African  countries how to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies and streamline service delivery to make government programmes and projects more effective. While at it, it must foster greater civic engagement with the civil society to ensure inclusivity in decision-making and policy implementation.

As of today Ghana ranks 133 out of 191 countries and maintains the same human development index (HDI) value for 2020 and 2021 with 0.632. This puts the country in the medium human development category, according to UNDP report. Between 1990 and 2021, Ghana’s Human Development Index (HDI) value grew from 0.460 to 0.632, reflecting an increase of 37.4%. However, though Ghana falls in the medium human development category, when considered for unequal distribution of human development, the country records a loss of 27.5 per cent in its HDI. For instance, Ghana’s level of gender inequality remains high over the years and ranked 130 out of 170 countries in 2021 in terms of gender inequality between female and male achievements. President Mahama has every reason to take Social Protection and Welfare seriously. He must make work out of poverty alleviation, expand social protection programmes to cushion the impact of rising living costs on vulnerable populations. Genuine focus should go to food security by supporting smallholder farmers with subsidies, access to credit, and modern farming techniques. Affordable housing in urban centres has remained a challenge. There can’t be a better time than now to partner with private developers to create affordable housing units to address the housing deficit.

Not unimportant is how President John Mahama will perform in the international stage with special reference to Regional Leadership and Foreign Policy. The principles enshrined in Ghana’s 1992 Constitution, particularly Article 40, which underscores the promotion and protection of the nation’s interests, respect for international law, and adherence to the principles of organisations such as the United Nations and the African Union, have continued to guide the country at the international stage. Over the years, the foreign policy has evolved to adapt to changing international dynamics. It is the hope that Mahama will remain consistent in the area of economic diplomacy and will leverage Ghana’s strategic position in West Africa to attract foreign direct investment and promote trade through agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Doing this will not preclude him from continuing to play a mediating role in regional conflicts to ensure peace and stability in the sub-region.

In conclusion, the 2024 elections that returned John Dramani Mahama as President underscores Ghana’s resolve to give him a shot at navigating the country’s economic recovery while upholding its democratic traditions. That he received as high as 56.55% mandate by Ghanaians indicates the readiness of the people to give him another chance. He can’t take this for granted by assuming that he has completely been forgiven his sins of old. He needs to rebuild trust amongs Ghanaians. As independent onlooker but one with a vested interest in the Pan-African agenda, I urge Mr President to place accountability and legacy building high on his agenda. It is not enough to state in his contract with the people of Ghana that he’d establish a robust code of conduct and standards for all government officials. The people of Ghana ade more interested in his clear mechanisms to address scandals and allegations of corruption from the past to rebuild credibility. Resting on this, he has no option but to focus on completing unfinished projects from his previous tenure, particularly in infrastructure and energy, to strengthen his governance legacy. By focusing on these recommended imperatives of the time, Mahama can address Ghana’s current challenges while leveraging his experience in rebuilding trust among Ghanaians and Africans.

The author, Collins Nweke is opinion-maker writer with The Brussels Times. A Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and the Institute of Management Consultants, he serves on the Governing Board of the International Association of Research Scholars & Administrators, where he is also a Fellow. He features on several Afrocentric media as Global Affairs Analyst. A Green Party Municipal Legislator in the legislature 2006 – 2025, he writes from Brussels, Belgium.

Addressing Neocolonialism in Nigeria-France Diplomacy

State visit as a tool of diplomacy is underpinned by a few core principles. It is unarguable that there are some of the principles that watchers of Nigeria-France relations will pay keen attention to, as President Tinubu of Nigeria touched down early evening on Wednesday in the cold Orly airport, France. One can’t help but be curious how Presidents Tinubu and Macron will have a frank and fair conversation yet avoid confrontational or unilateral demands. At least behind closed doors.

What about Regional Influence?  Nigeria seeks to assert its leadership at least in the West Africa subregion, sometimes conflicting with France’s relationships with Francophone African countries. France’s deep ties with Francophone nations overshadows, if not undermines, Nigeria’s efforts at regional integration and leadership through the Economic Community of West African States  (ECOWAS). How will this be navigated in the new French partnership with Africa? Or could this be one of the contentious issues that will be avoided?

Focusing  on cooperative and respectful dialogue is desirable. And indeed there are much more that unite than divide both countries. But would it not be waste of Nigerian taxpayers money if Tinubu returns home without confronting a number of knotty issues all in the name of the principle of mutual respect? France is on an offensive to redefine its Africa partnership given the growing anti-French sentiment across the continent. The discerning Nigerians perceive  France’s actions in neighboring Francophone countries as neocolonial. Also, Concentricism has always been the main thrust of Nigeria’s foreign policy, which denotes that Africa’s interests is at the heart of Nigeria’s interest. Little wonder Nigeria often advocates for African sovereignty and self-determination, which clashes with France’s historical influence in West and Central Africa. A redefined partnership with Africa that does not sufficiently take this into consideration will be short lived if it even manages to take off. Is this on President Tinubu’s agenda?

French-Nigerian Convergence

Before delving into the contentious issues in the French-Nigeria relations, it should be helpful to briefly touch on the areas where the two economies see eye to eye. There is agreement in principle on security cooperation for mutual benefits because both nations align on the fact that the sustainability of the warm economic and trade relations between them today, can only continue to be anchored tomorrow on a secure environment. While it could be said that there is alignment around the principles  of climate change and environmental matters, there is disparity on the speed to be applied in achieving energy transition. Call it a nuanced disagreement. Finally, cultural exchange has continued to be tied to education and in part on youth development. Both countries value cultural collaboration, with France being a significant promoter of African art and culture. French institutions in Nigeria, like the Alliance Française, facilitate educational and cultural exchanges.

Press releases from both the French and Nigerian presidency is unlikely to touch on the sticking points but by identifying these contentious areas, Nigeria can approach its dialogue with France strategically, emphasizing mutual interests while addressing critical points of divergence.

Divergent policy areas

Truth be told, neocolonialism even if it is in perception, remains an issue that analyst of France-Nigeria relations continue to monitor. As mentioned earlier there is growing anti-French sentiment across Africa. This derives its origin from the perception of neocolonialism. Nigeria has often advocated for African sovereignty and self-determination, which clashes with France’s historical influence in West and Central Africa. France has loads of work to change that perception and Nigeria can leverage its Regional Influence to help France on this rebranding mission. The major negotiating point would be France’s deep ties with Francophone nations and how this has overshadowed Nigeria’s efforts at regional integration and leadership through ECOWAS, of which President Tinubu is the current Chairman.

Counterterrorism

While France and Nigeria agree on countering terrorism, there are differing approaches. Nigeria’s perspective was shaped by skepticism over the effectiveness of France’s military strategy in the Sahel and concerns over France’s dominance in shaping regional security policies. If France has no ulterior counterterrorism motives, this is a matter that can be resolved with reassurance and transparency on the part of France.

ECOWAS Economic Independence

Nigeria’s advocacy for financial autonomy in the ECOWAS region, including the proposed ECO single currency, sometimes clashes with France’s support for the CFA Franc. Tinubu has implied that the CFA Franc remains a tool of economic control over Francophone countries, undermining regional economic independence.

Immigration Policies

France’s current strict immigration policies, deployed in response to the rising profile of the far-right political elements, which particularly target African migrants, including Nigerians, have been a point of contention and incrementally too. Of course it is the most normal thing in the world for Nigeria to advocate for fairer treatment and integration of African and Nigerian Diaspora in France. This is of critical importance to Nigeria as Diaspora is part of the 4D Renewed Foreign Policy strategy of the Tinubu administration. How vocally will Tinubu represent this advocacy given the Japa syndrome in Nigeria, its level of unpopularity amongst the political elites, and the potent anti-immigration sentiments in Europe?

Repatriation of Artifacts

Nigeria has been pushing for the return of artifacts taken during the colonial era, but progress has been slow, leading to frustration over France’s reluctance to expedite repatriation but also reparation. As a matter of point, a Senator of the ruling party of Tinubu, Ned Nwoko has made this a cardinal political point.

Energy Transition

Nigeria calls for a gradual, Africa-tailored approach to the energy transition to accommodate its developmental needs. This is one issue where some trade-offs may be required to resolve it. One can say that there is a good starting point because both nations agree at least in principle on climate goals. But given Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports, it will be unconscionable for President Tinubu to support  France’s push for aggressive energy transition policies.

Fairer international system

President Tinubu’s ambition to secure a fairer international system for Nigeria and Africa is both conceivable and attainable, particularly with strategic support from influential global partners like France. In President Macron commitment to redefining France’s relationship with Africa, he has emphasised mutual respect and equitable partnerships. This alignment presents opportunities for collaboration to advance Nigeria’s and Africa’s positions in the global arena. France can be positioned here as a pivotal ally. It’s got to require concerted efforts in advocacy, economic collaboration, security cooperation, and cultural exchange. A more equitable global order that benefits Nigeria, Africa, and the international community is doable. But was it on or off the table during the Tinubu state visit?

United Nations Security Council and Nigeria’s ambitions

Nigeria’s membership as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is conceivable, given its influence in Africa and globally. As Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, Nigeria has long expressed its ambition to represent Africa on a reformed UNSC. However, achieving this goal requires significant diplomatic support and global consensus, including backing from influential nations like France. The question in the minds of analysts is the extent to which such a conversation forms part of the Tinubu state visit to Macron. France can play a constructive role in advancing Nigeria’s UNSC ambitions by leveraging its global influence, fostering regional consensus, and advocating for a reformed Security Council that includes African representation. For Nigeria to succeed, it must also address domestic challenges, build stronger alliances, and sustain its role as a leader in regional and global peacekeeping efforts. What trade-offs could Macron put on the table and which concessions can Tinubu commit to? Again was this on the agenda or conveniently avoided?

It may very well be that the Tinubu state visit and a possible reciprocated one by Macron will help to lay the foundation stones in the much needed rebuilding of trust by France and redefining of its Africa partnership. The job will be made easier if France is ready for an open and honest dialogue on how France can rebuild trust with African nations. If Tinubu can get Macron to commit to the reorientation of France’s foreign policy towards true partnership and respect for African sovereignty, the ball would be set rolling in addressing the critically important and broader geopolitical dynamics between France and Nigeria and Africa by extension.

The author, Collins Nweke is opinion-maker writer with The Brussels Times. A Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and the Institute of Management Consultants, he serves on the Governing Board of the International Association of Research Scholars & Administrators, where he is also a Fellow. He features on several Afrocentric media as Global Affairs Analyst and writes from Brussels, Belgium.

A case for Diaspora Consult as Driver of Global Service Export


Recently I discovered a young man, in his early twenties, based in Owerri, Southeast Nigeria. A graphics designer  by passion and later by training, he is the reason I and my Associates no longer use suppliers of  graphics that we have retained here in Europe for many years. You’d think that my European suppliers will be mad at me for the decision. No, they are not. As a matter of fact, the Owerri young man has equally become a subcontractor to them. When they have excess assignment or when express delivery is required, they either call Owerri or  my other supplier that I call my Igbuzo Homeboy. This examplifies the saying in circular economic theory that Businesses can Collaborate rather than Compete. This way, every player becomes a winner.

Welcome to the beauty and strength of the new economy, the service economy. More than anything else in all the conversations around diversification of the Nigerian economy away from oil dependency,  Service Export is a low hanging fruit. Not commodities, not solid minerals, not agricultural products. It is about the sale and delivery of intangible products, from the remotest enclave in Nigeria to just about any metropolis in the world. All transacted via WhatsApp, not some other sophisticated gadgets requiring huge startup capital, dependent on an elusive and declining energy supply and other bottlenecks.

The further good news is that the playing field is broad enough to accommodate both the big and the small. Here a brief paintbrush for lack of space. Companies like Globacom, MTN Nigeria, and Airtel provide international telecommunications services, including voice and data transmission, to a global client base. My former employer, UBA and probably every other bank in Nigeria – GTBank, Zenith – offer international banking services, including remittances and cross-border transactions. Nigerian tech companies provide software development, IT support, and other tech services to clients globally. An indigenous company, Andela, trains software developers and connects them with global tech conglomerates. Nollywood, through NETFLIX and the likes, exports films and entertainment content to a global audience, generating revenue from international viewership and distribution deals.

In April during a Lagos and Abuja flag offs of a Business Forum, it was a privilege to interact with many Nigerian consulting firms offering professional advice in oil and gas, agriculture, finance, and management, to international clients. They are joining us in Brussels, Belgium in September at the Nigeria Belgium Luxembourg Business Forum 2024, to expand their frontiers. So too are law firms in Nigeria providing legal services to international clients, particularly in areas related to oil and gas, intellectual property, corporate governance, and commercial law. The list is long and so too are the potentials to grow individuals in Nigeria and in Diaspora and inevitably grow Nigeria’s economy.

The big question is, how do you organise the table? The answer to this could be found in the 2024 Nigeria’s 4D Renewed Foreign Policy Doctrine.  The four Ds, which are Democracy, Development, Demography and Diaspora, are conceived to be quadrilateral pillars of a new foreign policy the details of which are yet to be exhaustively articulated and  made crystal clear. That one of the capital Ds is Diaspora appears to be an intentional invitation to the Diaspora to give it expression. If it wasn’t, well, the Diaspora should seize the moment to audaciously make it so. The Diaspora needs permission from nobody to organise the table around service export. The opportunities there for individuals, businesses, and organisations are limitless. NIDO as umbrella of Nigerian Diaspora has an opportunity here to lead.

By whatever means possible, the Embassies through the Minister of Foreign Affairs should be gotten to reassert the authorities of Diaspora Desk Officers at the Embassies. Every continental arm of NIDO should appoint a point person on Service Exports culminating in a Global Service Export Working Team to provide strategic direction. If at this point Diaspora Consult, a commercial arm of NIDO is birthed, it just might be that imperative of our time that Nigeria needs in harnessing its Diaspora added value.

Collins Nweke | Chairman Emeritus NIDO Europe  

 

Addressing the Vulnerability of Nigeria as an Economy

Nigerians who have been crying out over harsh times and excruciatingly high cost of living have recently been told that theirs is no crocodile tears. At least its recent classification as “vulnerable” in the Africa Country Instability Risk Index (ACIRI) indicates so. Nigeria ranked 45 out of the 48 African economies evaluated, unlike in 2023 when it ranked 39 and was marked “stable / warning”. The poor classification reflects a polygamous marriage of economic, security, and governance challenges in Nigeria.

Nigerians have become familiar with persuasions from their Government that their sufferings are inevitable. They are suffering because of the beautiful policies of government which aims at long term prosperity. In other words, Nigerians have got to accept that things will get worse before they get better. The kitchen table reality is that a 50 kg of rice bought at NGN30,000 last year, now costs NGN100,000. In the days after this poor showing of Nigeria in the index, citizens will expect media spokespersons of government to hit the airwaves with further reasons for them to hang in there and wait for the better days that will come.

The truth of the matter is that many will not live to see the promised prosperity as hunger and disease will send them to early grave. So, the vulnerable status that Nigeria currently enjoys speaks directly to these weak citizens. I hear you ask how Nigeria got to this vulnerable status in the first place. I can hazard a few guesses.

Key among the factors is Currency Depreciation and Inflation. The significant devaluation of the Nigerian Naira has led to soaring inflation, eroding purchasing power and exacerbating poverty levels. As long as the neck of inflation is not broken in Nigeria and exchange rate remains volatile, the country will remain the party ground for extreme poverty.

Analysts who had faith in the Economic Policy Reforms of President Bola Tinubu, such as ending fuel subsidies and unifying exchange rates, argued then that they aimed at stabilising the economy. I just wonder if they now believe that the resultant effect of immediate hardships for many Nigerians, is a walk in the park? Will they advise that Government stays the course?

To address Nigeria’s downgraded status in the Africa Country Instability Risk Index (ACIRI), the government must adopt a holistic approach targeting economic stability, security enhancement, and governance reform. Lessons could be learned from the Rwandan and Colombian models. These are two out of several countries that have successfully addressed state vulnerabilities through targeted reforms and strategic governance. The two notable examples that may provide useful case study for Nigeria.

Following the 1994 genocide, Rwanda faced severe vulnerabilities, including political instability, ethnic tensions, and economic collapse.

To address Political Stability and Governance, Rwanda implemented inclusive governance structures while promoting national unity through policies like Ndi Umunyarwanda (I am Rwandan). The development of similar national ethos is an imperative of this era in Nigeria’s development trajectory. I recently read a former media aide to President Bola Tinubu describe his efforts in this regard which never saw the light of day before his resignation perhaps out of frustration.

The Economic Transformation of Rwanda saw government prioritise diversification, investing in sectors like ICT, agriculture, and tourism. Nigeria needs to step up investment in non-oil sector and genuinely give teeth to economic diplomacy. The obvious question is how the country wants to be intentional about this when their diplomatic missions across the world have been literally headless, with no substantive Ambassadors over the past year?

The development of Anti-Corruption measures served Rwanda well in the way it developed a zero-tolerance approach to corruption and improving institutional efficiency. Nigeria’s Economic & Financial Crimes Commission started well but appears to have derailed. If they retrace their steps, Nigeria will be the better for it.

That Rwanda which still grapples with the label of autocracy by critics, is now considered one of Africa’s most stable and fastest-growing economies, with significant progress in governance and human development, attests to the fact that with consistency in good policy formulation and implementation, the fortune of a country can change for the better.

Colombia on the other hand endured decades of violence from drug cartels and armed insurgencies, particularly the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (RAFC) resulting in vulnerabilities akin to Nigeria’s of today. The country worked on key strategies like security reforms, peace process, economic diversification, and social inclusion.

On Security Reforms, the government launched the “Democratic Security Policy,” which focused on increasing state presence in rural areas and strengthening military capabilities. Efforts at Sustainable Peace saw Columbia initiate negotiations with the FARC culminating in a peace agreement in 2016, ending a 50-year conflict. Sometimes we hear rumours of Nigerian government going into negotiations with Boko Haram and other insurgency groups. Colombian example tells us that it has been done and successfully elsewhere. If Nigeria could end the debate and implement the State Policing structure, this might help achieve the sort of success that Columbia recorded in stabilising and securing the rural areas, thereby helping to enhance the exploitation of local endowments in agriculture, solid minerals, and tourism for economic regeneration.

The Economic Diversification that Columbia embarked upon was consistent. Their policies targeted reducing reliance on oil exports by promoting industries like coffee, tourism, and technology. Nigeria’s diversification efforts appear in some cases to take a step forward and three steps backwards. This is partly due to high levels or perceptions of insecurity. Also linked to this is Columbia’s Social Inclusion strategies. It addressed poverty and inequality, particularly in previously neglected regions.

Colombia ultimately experienced improved security, economic growth, and increased foreign investment, although challenges like inequality and organised crime persist.

The lessons for Nigeria from Rwanda and Columbia is that both countries demonstrate the importance of addressing root causes of vulnerabilities, ensuring strong governance, and fostering inclusivity while maintaining a focus on security and economic transformation. These lessons could guide Nigeria in crafting its own strategies to overcome instability.

Nigeria can also leverage regional cooperation by working with ECOWAS and African Union partners to address transnational threats like terrorism and migration. With its 4D Renewed Foreign Policy doctrine, Nigeria could use economic diplomacy to create a stable policy environment to rebuild investor confidence and attract foreign capital. In the same vein Data-Driven Policies are needed to address Nigeria’s vulnerabilities by developing robust mechanisms to collect and analyse data for informed decision-making.

The intertwined factors that have collectively contributed to Nigeria’s downgraded status in the ACIRI, highlight the need for comprehensive strategies to address economic instability, enhance security, and improve governance to restore stability. The implementation of these strategies will tackle the root causes of Nigeria’s vulnerabilities and improve its standing in the ACIRI and other global indices.

The author, Collins Nweke is opinion-maker writer with The Brussels Times. A Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and the Institute of Management Consultants, he serves on the Governing Board of the International Association of Research Scholars & Administrators, where he is also a Fellow. He features on several Afrocentric media as Global Affairs Analyst and writes from Brussels, Belgium.

Nigeria@64

At 64 years post-independence, Nigeria stands as a nation of immense potential but also significant challenges.

Happy Independence Day Nigeria

While the country has made marginal advances in areas such as economic growth in some sectors and regional diplomacy, it continues to face persistent obstacles, including corruption, insecurity, and underdevelopment.

The success of Nigeria as a nation-state will depend on addressing these structural challenges while harnessing its human and natural resources for more equitable and sustainable development. #HappyIndependence #NigeriaAt64 #KeepHopeAlive #NigeriansWillNotGiveUp

Keynoting Omenaimo 2024

I’ve never had to give a public talk about being Igbo. That will change on Sunday 8 September when I will be keynoting Omenaimo ImoDay 2024 in Dublin Ireland.

I’d be deploying some personal narratives and some social theories in a storytelling format to try to do justice to the topic of #inculturation #identity #culture #interculture. Here is a pretaste of what #Umuimo #Ndigbo and #Nigerians in Ireland 🇮🇪 can expect from me:

When Mazi Utuagbaigwe insisted that he is not giving Adaeze’s hands in marriage to his Belgian son-in-law, if he does not perform the Igba Nkwu rites, was he being insensitive to the culture of his host country or being chauvinistic? Can it be judiciously argued that inviting his in-laws to negotiate his daughter’s bride price is an affront to European laws and culture? And what about his rebuke to his daughter and her husband that among the Igbos, marriage is an affair for both the immediate and extended family and he cannot have any of them question whoever he decides to identify as that extended family? What about tutoring his son-in-law that under no circumstances should he even think of calling him or his Lolo by their first names, he must call them what he hears Adaeze calls them! How does any of these strongly held positions hamper integration into their host community in Europe?

Clean Energy Transition: the global south versus the world.

In this extensive duo conversation, Secretary General of CBL-ACP Chamber of Commerce, Thomas De Beule and I were engaged by journalist Stephen Imediegwu of RadioNow FM Lagos. Within the framework of a mission to Nigeria to unveil and promote the 2nd Nigeria Belgium Luxembourg Business Forum, holding in Brussels, Belgium on 18 – 20 September 2024, we sought to speak to the notion of Oil been a dead commodity.