Tag: Africa

Strategic Silence of Nigeria in the Russia-Ukraine War

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The Trump-Zelenskyy Oval Office debacle has led to many unsolicited advice to a desperate Ukrainian President on how he ought to have handled an erratic American President. I laughed at some, got offended, if not angry, at others. Yet some got me thinking. They got me thinking of a few incidents during my time as municipal legislator at Ostend City Council, Belgium. Let me single out two particular incidents.

One was during the first of my three terms. I had just been sworn in.  While learning the legislative rope, all buried in piles of briefing notes, books, and handouts, I relied for guidance in the interim, on my sense of right and wrong, my ideological persuasion if you like, and my Green Party political lines, especially the issues on which we were elected. One of the items slated for a vote in one of my early sittings was approval of procedure for employment of ‘Student Vacation Jobbers’ at the department for social welfare in whose board I served at the time.

Asking around, I discovered that the vacant positions were never published by the department. The order of allocation of student job positions was for Councillors to bring in their children. If, as Councillor, we had no school-age children of 16 years or older, we could bring in anyone of our choosing. Next in rank were the staff of the department in order of seniority. If there are any places left after filling these anointed priority places, the Council Chairman will then handpick party royals to favour with the positions.

My immediate reaction was that this must be wrong and that it must stop. I quickly put together a brief interpellation in which I pointed out that I do not feel comfortable giving my teenage son priority over other kids just because I, his dad, happened to be Councillor. Equality of chance presupposes that we should open up the space for all kids irrespective of background. Let the best candidates get the jobs.

If we must favour any group, I argued, then let us prioritise kids from families in poverty or that are facing threats of poverty. We know who they are because their parents are our clients on income support. They lack the network to facilitate getting vacation job for their kids, which we all have in abundance. If we are serious about breaking generational poverty, let us consider spreading our tentacles to directions that will effectively break the poverty circle. I then acknowledged that this procedure has been in place for a very long time and that I do not intend to cause avoidable disruption and administrative bottleneck. I therefore will not vote against but will request that in the course of the year, we must revisit the procedure and abandon the old order.

A couple of days later, a journalist contacted me to say that he had picked the story up from somewhere. The Council Chairman had denied my side of the story, stating that during the entire Council sitting in question, I uttered no word. “As a matter of fact, Councillor Collins Nweke was one of the first to vote in support of the motion”, he declared to the journalist. He detested this cowardly attitude of keeping quiet during proceedings only to open the mouth wide with journalist to tell lies. He went comically further to say that if elections were close by, he would have suggested that I was suffering from early symptoms of election fever.

My teenage son who had applied for a place, became a casualty of the entire episode. He got punished because his dad spoke up. As applicant, rather than posting him to a work post as close to his home as possible, as is the standard practice, he was allocated a student job place as far away from home as possible with basically an impossible public transport connection. But the young man understood and made the best out of that first experience as student worker. On the benefit of hindsight, I would have applied the doctrine of diplomatic ambiguity by abstaining rather than voting for or against. Useful lesson learnt.

Second incident was during my second term. The Mayor pushed for a Bill to reform parts of our policy on the local economy. I felt that a part of the unintended consequences of the proposed Bill will be bankruptcy for businesses owned by a large segment of ethnic minority entrepreneurs. In specific terms, a few business cum residential districts were adjudged to be attracting higher number of corner shops offering ethnic products and night shops. And with that, a perception of insecurity was felt by some local residents who felt that ‘their City’ was being overtaken by migrants. They feel like ‘strangers’ in their homes and all of those social stereotypical sentiments. Others who owned homes in the districts were worried that their properties were being devalued as a consequence of the population shift and mix.

Though I had the economy portfolio as well as equality rights within my caucus and the policy was mine to drive, we have a culture of consensus, preferably or majority carries the vote. To cut long story short, I was more or less alone within my caucus in my opposition against the reform. That is not to say that my party colleagues supported the reform full force, though one of us silently wished for it to pass because he had a property there. The general feeling is more of not ignoring the concerns of voters who may not be racist but feel insecure or vulnerable with the changing demography of our cherished city.

The big question is what do we do? Politically, it will be murderous for us to vote in support of the Bill because we can’t defend it with our core support base. Voting against it, which was my first inclination, was feared to be counterproductive with some of our voters that favoured the Bill. My sense was that most of my colleagues, maybe all, would vote yes if we allowed the notion of voting only your heart. In the end we agreed on kicking in the doctrine of diplomatic ambiguity. The compromise was that we will abstain  from voting and will offer no clear explanation for or against. We will do all we can to empower the affected group of the proposed reform with information and administrative support where needed.

These two incidents pulled out of my personal experience in politics are meant to provide a preface to the unsolicited thoughts I equally want to join in proffering on Nigeria’s approach towards the Russia-Ukraine war. I believe that it is the same doctrine of diplomatic ambiguity which I have had reasons to either  apply or support a number of times in my political career that I believe Nigeria is deploying  in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine war.

The doctrine is a strategic foreign policy approach where a country deliberately avoids taking a clear or definitive stance on a contentious international issue. This doctrine allows states to maintain flexibility, avoid alienating key partners, and retain room for diplomatic maneuvering. By refusing to openly align with any side in a conflict or dispute, a country can maximize its options, protect its interests, and reduce the risk of becoming entangled in the rivalries of larger powers.

Like in basically all things, applying the doctrine comes with some consequences. I can therefore safely imagine that the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Nigeria and his team, must have weighed the pros and cons before stepping in to brief Mr President and recommend Nigeria’s position.

As the largest economy and most populous nation in Africa, Nigeria plays a pivotal role in shaping African responses to global crises. Its foreign policy traditionally balances non-alignment, economic pragmatism, and regional leadership. Historically, Nigeria has positioned itself as part of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), avoiding entanglement in distant geopolitical conflicts and great power struggles. Maintaining ambiguity aligns with this tradition and reinforces sovereignty in decision-making, prioritizing domestic economic development, regional stability in West Africa, and preserving ties with all major powers. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Nigeria has leaned slightly toward the Western stance, condemning Russian aggression in UN votes but avoiding strident rhetoric or severing ties with Moscow. This in practical terms reflects textbook application of the doctrine of ambiguity.

In the choices that Nigeria makes, it must think of the preservation of its strategic relationships. The country maintains strong economic ties with the West, including investment, aid, trade, and military cooperation, particularly through partnerships with the EU, UK, and US. But in the same vein, it has growing military and energy ties with Russia, including cooperation in areas like oil exploration, arms procurement, and nuclear technology. Being diplomatic ambiguous ensures it does not alienate either side.

There are also gains in economic diversification that Nigeria needs to consider. Its reliance on Western capital markets and development finance institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Bank is crucial for the country’s economic recovery and infrastructure investment. The counterbalance here is that Russia’s role in the global oil and gas markets aligns with Nigeria’s interests as an energy exporter. Nigeria benefits when high oil prices, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, bolster government revenues.

The Minister must have also considered the need for flexibility for future alliances in his memo to Mr President. I summise that by not fully committing to either bloc, Nigeria can adapt its position based on how the war evolves and how global power shifts play out, ensuring diplomatic maneuverability.

Timing they say can be everything. With pressing domestic challenges like high youth unemployment and restiveness, security crises up North, spate of kidnappings, and efforts at economic diversification away from oil, of which the Nigerian Export Promotion Council reports over 20% growth in 2024, the Minister may have reasoned that Nigeria benefits from focusing inward rather than spending diplomatic capital on a distant European conflict.

There is also the regional leadership dimension and African consensus to consider. A diplomatic ambiguous position allows Nigeria to play a consensus-building role within the African Union (AU), where member states have differing views on the crisis. The Minister may have felt that Nigeria is better off projecting itself as a unifying force, keeping Africa’s voice independent and cohesive in global forums.

Decisions around positioning a consequential country like Nigeria in an issue of global dimension like the Russia-Ukraine war do not come easy. There are a few risks to consider in applying the Doctrine of Ambiguity. For a start, there is the Western pressure and perception issues to contend with. Nigeria’s relatively soft stance on Russia could be viewed negatively by the EU, UK, and US who expect clearer alignment in defense of international law and territorial sovereignty. Who knows how this could affect Nigeria’s access to Western investment, security partnerships, and climate finance, which are critical for its long-term development agenda? Early indications for instance are that some African countries like Kenya that took a clear pro-West stance have seen increased trade and investment benefits from Western governments looking to reward loyalty. Nigeria faces potential risks of being seen as fence-sitting, forfeiting opportunities to negotiate preferential trade or security deals from either side.

There is the moral and ethical concerns to contend with. Nigeria aspires to moral leadership in Africa, rooted in its history of anti-apartheid activism and peacekeeping leadership. Avoiding a clear stance risks eroding Nigeria’s moral authority on global governance issues.

Not trading carefully can lead to internal political divisions giving Nigeria’s internal political divisions. The country has a complex domestic political environment, with historical ties to both the West and Russia through Cold War-era military cooperation. Internal pro-Russia, pro-Ukraine, and pro-West factions within the government, academia, Diaspora, and media could exploit ambiguity, framing it as indecision, lack of vision, or maybe even ‘stomach infrastructure’ where some Nigerians in the Russian Diaspora are being accused without evidence of acting as paid agents of the Russian Federation to spread propaganda.

One of the most vexing risks that Nigeria faces in taking the route of diplomatic ambiguity is reduced influence in global governance. Its ambition to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council or take leadership on major global issues such as development financing or advocacy for Africa on climate adaptation  could be undermined if it is seen as unwilling to take clear, principled positions on defining issues like Ukraine.

In the final analysis, there is a balancing act for Nigeria to undertake. Its application of the doctrine of ambiguity in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is pragmatic. It allows the country to preserve vital economic and security relationships while staying true to its non-aligned heritage. However, as a continental leader, Nigeria faces higher expectations to articulate an African perspective on global crises, particularly in light of its aspirations for global leadership. Nigeria could fine-tune its diplomatic ambiguity into a constructive diplomatic neutrality, where it condemns violations of international law such as territorial aggression while also advocating for African interests, including ensuring food security, energy price stability, and non-punitive responses toward African economies impacted by sanctions spillover. This may be a good strategy for Africa’s dominant economy to position itself as a mediator capable of facilitating dialogue between Russia, Ukraine, and global powers, leveraging its status as a respected African power.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Collins Nweke is a former Green Councillor at Ostend City Council, Belgium where he served three consecutive terms until December 2024. He is a Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and Institute of Management  Consultants. He is also a Distinguished Fellow of the International Association of Research Scholars and Administrators, where he serves in its Governing Council. He writes from Brussels, Belgium.

X: @collinsnweke E: admin@collinsnweke.eu W: www.collinsnweke.eu

Navigating the Sahel Crisis: A Strategic Framework for Stability in ECOWAS

When Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso abruptly withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) forming the Alliance of Sahel States (also known by its French acronym AES) some did not take them seriously. The olive branch extended by some critical stakeholders keen to see a de-escalation in the crisis began to lower in January 2024 when the trio formally withdrew from the bloc. Anger, resentment, and other emotions may be inevitable. However every prudent leader must realise that a comprehensive and inclusive approach is essential to prevent the AES formation from leading to further regional instability. By fostering dialogue, enhancing security cooperation, and promoting sustainable development, ECOWAS, the AU, and the international community must play a role  in building a more united and prosperous West Africa.

Before delving into the specific roles of the core regional, continental, and global stakeholders, it is essential to provide an overview of how we arrived at this point. As of February 2025, the government of Niger Republic has implemented several significant changes to its border regulations, particularly affecting its relationship with Nigeria. There have been border closures and reopenings following the military coup in July 2023. The introduction of new travel documents followed swiftly. In line with AES initiatives, Niger introduced a joint biometric passport for its citizens, to facilitate movement within the alliance. However, this new passport has faced recognition challenges from non-AES countries, like Senegal. This led to trade restrictions, when in October 2024, Niger imposed a comprehensive ban on food exports to countries outside the AES, including Nigeria. This measure was officially positioned as a means  to boost agricultural self-reliance within the alliance but it has (unintentionally?) disrupted traditional trade flows between Niger and Nigeria. 

Without doubts, these developments reflect Niger’s shift towards strengthening ties with its immediate neighbours within the AES framework, while asserting its sovereignty and redefining its relationships and border policies with countries like Nigeria. The core question remains whether or not Niger has focused only on the gains of its moves and has overlooked the potential losses

Gains and Losses from Niger-Nigeria Border War

The border closures created short-term economic and social hardships, particularly for vulnerable populations and businesses. However, they also presented opportunities for improving national security, promoting local economic development, and asserting political independence. Long-term gains will depend on the success of Niger’s domestic policies and its cooperation within the Alliance of Sahel States. We must remember that the first attempt at a Sahel alliance fell apart. Could it be that it will succeed this time around because they are dancing to the tunes of more determined foreign drummers focused on redrawing the World Order? That remains to be seen. But as far as our mortal eyes can carry us, we can’t lose sight of some obvious gains.

The Gains

The gain that springs most obviously to the eyes is security enhancement. The border closures aimed to curb the movement of armed groups, smuggling, and other illicit activities, contributing to national security, particularly in Niger, which faces threats from extremist groups.  The border closures led to a temporary reduction in cross-border crimes such as human trafficking, drug smuggling, and arms trafficking. A boost to domestic production is another important gain in the stride to agricultural self-sufficiency. By reducing dependency on imports, Niger sought to encourage local agricultural production, supporting its intentional national food security goals and local industry sufficiency. The restrictions provided opportunities for local industries to meet domestic demand, fostering industrial growth.

There is also political leverage that we may not discontenance. For Niger, the border closures were part of a broader strategy to assert its sovereignty and negotiate better terms in regional alliances, particularly after its exit from ECOWAS and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The Losses

Analysts for Niger of the costs-benefits of their border strategy have a number of losses to contend with. For a start, economic disruption by way of trade decline is a critical factor. The border closures severely impacted cross-border trade. Both formal and informal trade, including agricultural products, livestock, and manufactured goods, experienced significant reductions. The attendant revenue loss has had significant impact on the fragile economy.  Governments of both Niger and Nigeria lost customs duties and taxes collected from cross-border trade, impacting national and local economies. The humanitarian impact manifesting in food insecurity was pretty visible. Niger, which relies on food imports from Nigeria, faced increased food insecurity. Rising food prices worsened conditions for vulnerable populations. Many small-scale traders, transporters, and border communities that depend on cross-border trade for their livelihoods faced economic hardship.

The social and cultural disruptions is another critical loss. It is said that in the border area between Niger and Nigeria, some homes have their living rooms in one country and their bedrooms in the other country. In other words, limited movement and restrictions on free movement of people disrupted daily life. Families and communities with cross-border ties are  separated, affecting social cohesion, employment, and education opportunities, especially for those who frequently crossed borders, not to mention the strained diplomatic relations between Niger and Nigeria.

The Strategic Approach

To address the potential crisis resulting from the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, a coordinated and pragmatic approach is essential. ECOWAS, the African Union (AU), and the broader international community should prioritize diplomatic engagement, security cooperation, and socioeconomic development to foster regional stability.

ECOWAS as key actor

The ECOWAS has the prime responsibility of demonstrating good faith by efforts at rebuilding trust for regional unity. The bloc is formally on records to have started off well. In its 29 January 2025 Declaration formally acknowledging the withdrawal of the trio of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS, it placed a four-point instruction before member states as follows:

1.     recognize National passports and identity cards bearing ECOWAS logo held by the citizens of Burkina Faso, the Republic of Mali and the Republic of Niger, until further notice.

2.     continue to treat goods and services coming from the three countries in accordance with the ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS) and investment policy.

3.     allow citizens of the three affected countries to continue to enjoy the right of visa free movement, residence and establishment in accordance with the ECOWAS protocols until further notice.

4.     provide full support and cooperation to ECOWAS officials from the three countries in the course of their assignments for the Community.

Determined to avoid confusion and disruption in the lives and businesses of the ECOWAS population during what it described as a transition period, the instruction to member states added that the arrangements will be in place until the full determination of the modalities of our future engagement with the three countries by the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Governments. The Commission has set up a structure to facilitate discussions on these modalities with each of the three countries.

It could be gleaned from the ECOWAS statement that it pays or intends to pay premium to Inclusive Dialogue when it indicated the establishment of requisite structure to facilitate discussions on modalities with each of the three Sahel economies. Without delay and despite the new border regulations announced recently by Niger, ECOWAS should initiate high-level diplomatic dialogues with the AES states, ensuring that their security and governance concerns are addressed within the framework of regional integration. The dialogue should aim to rebuild trust and explore pathways for their re-entry into ECOWAS.

Talking of framework, ECOWAS can be served better by a flexible governance framework. It should consider revising its governance protocols to accommodate the specific political and security challenges faced by Sahel states, promoting inclusivity and understanding. There must be Security Collaboration with the establishment of joint security initiatives with AES to combat terrorism, insurgency, and cross-border crime, reinforcing collective security while respecting the sovereignty of member states.

Some may find this misplaced but from an economic standpoint, providing incentives to AES states is a strategic investment that can restore regional economic integration, stabilise food supply chains, reduce the costs of conflict, and strengthen ECOWAS’s long-term influence. By promoting inclusive economic growth and enhancing trade and infrastructure, ECOWAS can foster a more prosperous and interconnected West Africa, benefiting all member states in the long run.

Of all the arguments in support of a strategic approach to managing the Sahel States crisis, the most compelling perhaps is the need to maintain strategic geopolitical and economic influence. Providing economic incentives reinforces ECOWAS’s role as the primary regional organization, strengthening its influence and maintaining regional cohesion. There is probably no smarter way of countering external influence. This is because supporting the Sahel States economically can reduce their reliance on external actors, such as non-African powers, ensuring that regional development aligns with ECOWAS’s long-term interests. Other factors circle around restoration of regional economic integration, strengthening supply chain and food security, and promoting long-term economic growth and stability.

It is not unimportant to consider the Cost-Benefit Perspective where we look at the short-term costs versus long-term gains. While providing incentives may involve short-term financial costs, the long-term benefits, such as increased trade, economic growth, and political stability, far outweigh these initial critical investments. Numerous studies have proven that infrastructure investments and trade facilitation measures generate a multiplier effect by stimulating private sector growth, increasing government revenues, and improving living standards.

African Union (AU) as key Pan-African Mediator

A role naturally cut out for the African Union is that of Neutral Mediation, facilitating dialogue between ECOWAS, AES, and other stakeholders to prevent further fragmentation of the region. A Continental Security Strategy is an imperative of our time. This should aim to strengthen the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). It should also address the root causes of insecurity in the Sahel, ensuring a coordinated response to terrorism and political instability. The newly elected President of the African Union Commission, Ambassador Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, whose mantra is “Silencing the Guns” has an obligation to ensuring that all nations of Africa, especially his native Djibouti return to constitutional order. Another critical role for the AU is the mobilisation of humanitarian assistance to mitigate the impact of border closures and economic disruptions on vulnerable populations, promoting regional stability and goodwill.

The broader International Community as Enablers of Sustainable Development and Governance

An essential component of sustainable peace and development is Diplomatic Engagement.  The United Nations, European Union, and other international partners should support AU and ECOWAS-led mediation efforts, emphasizing dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution. The region must be provided with targeted security assistance to help both ECOWAS and AES states combat terrorism, while ensuring that such support aligns with international human rights standards. They should increase investments in sustainable development, including education, healthcare, and infrastructure, to address the root causes of conflict and foster long-term stability. Related to this is capacity building. The AU should support governance reforms, anti-corruption measures, and inclusive political processes to strengthen state institutions and improve governance in both ECOWAS and AES countries.

No strategic approach to negotiated settlement of the crises with the Alliance of Sahel States can be said to be cast in stones but a well- considered implementation roadmap can certainly be put in place. A three-phase roadmap of short, medium, and long term is recommended.

The short term is a six-month duration in which diplomatic dialogue between ECOWAS, AES, and the AU is initiated. The focus will be on confidence-building measures and reducing tensions. In a subsequent eighteen-month medium term phase, joint security initiatives should be recommended to implement economic incentives to encourage regional cooperation. This then ushers in a five-year long term phase of consolidation, promotion of sustainable development, and good governance, ensuring that the root causes of conflict and insecurity are addressed.

In conclusion, the pressing issue remains the military coups and the return to constitutional order. In hindsight, the immediate use of threats and sanctions by ECOWAS has proven ineffective in addressing the series of military takeovers. However, recent actions indicate that ECOWAS has learned valuable lessons and is now striving to balance its commitment to democratic governance with the need for peace and stability in the Sahel. By prioritizing dialogue, supporting socioeconomic development, and addressing the root causes of political instability, ECOWAS can facilitate a peaceful return to constitutional order in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. This approach not only aims to maintain regional unity and long-term stability but also demonstrates strength and resilience, not weakness.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Collins Nweke is a former Green Councillor at Ostend City Council, Belgium where he served three consecutive terms until December 2024. He is a Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and Institute of Management  Consultants. He is also a Distinguished Fellow of the International Association of Research Scholars and Administrators, where he serves in its Governing Council. He writes from Brussels, Belgium.

Ghana’s Mahama: Navigating Economic Challenges and Democratic Legacy

This week the good people of Ghana will continue adjusting to last weekend news of the return of John, not The Baptist, but Dramani Mahama, to the presidential villa. While this is understandably good news for his supporters, those that lined up behind incumbent Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, his opponent, are left to nurse their wounds. But did this come entirely as a surprise to them? It probably didn’t. I will tell you why in a moment. It certainly didn’t matter to objective watchers like me with no horse in this race except a desire to see the consolidation of democracy in a prominent West African nation. This is at a time when things are falling apart in the region and dominant regional players like Nigeria are struggling to hold the centre together.

Call it the day after. We can then begin to ask how this victory came about given that the same issues that led Ghanaians to sack Mahama in 2016 are same for renewing their faiths in him eight years later. So, where was Ghana then economically and politically? Where are they now; what has changed?

Let us begin with the present. As of election day in 2024, Ghana’s consumer inflation rose to 23.0% year-on-year, up from 22.1% in October. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by higher food prices. The market women of Makola, central Accra felt this especially in the prices of vegetables, yam, cassava, and plantains. However, the second quarter of 2024 saw Ghana’s economy grow by 6.9% year-on-year, the fastest rate since the Nana Akufo-Addo presidency. This growth was propelled by strong performances in the mining and quarrying sectors, with the gold sector expanding by 23.6%. The country equally restructured $13 billion in U.S. dollar bonds, effectively exiting a nearly two-year debt default. This restructuring reduced the nation’s debt by over $4 billion. This brings with it the prospect of positioning Ghana for a return to global capital markets.

While the nation’s debt was reduced, it could safely be said that the elections were held amid significant economic challenges. The high inflation linked to debt defaults were skilfully made electioneering issues. This leads one to ask if Ghanaians are quick to forget that in 2015,  Mahama’s government equally sought a $918 million bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy and address high debt levels.

Ghanaians may not be quick to forget. It might simply be that Mahama was a better political communicator with better packaged messaging than Bawumia and his New Patriotic Party. He may have been better at bringing on  issues that influenced voter sentiment at a time when many are seeking change due to rising living costs. Mahama dipped into his accomplishments as President from 2012 to 2017. He successfully emphasized his infrastructure development that focused on roads, schools, hospitals, and energy projects. He reminded voters of initiatives like the Atuabo Gas Processing Plant and expansion of ports and airports which modernised Ghana’s economy.

Tried as he could, Bawumia was unable to successfully shine the light on the energy crisis that enveloped Ghana under Mahama’s watch. Ghana faced a severe power crisis, the so-called Dumsor with frequent outages crippling businesses and causing pains to households.

On his part Mahama got the focus to rest on the efforts his administration invested in  to achieve energy mix. This includes thermal and renewable energy plants, to address the power crisis. His campaign was good at deploying contrast communication strategy. For instance while admitting that the economy was hard hit with declining prices of gold, cocoa, and oil, his team was quick to point to the fact that the fault lay with decline in global commodity prices and had nothing to do with  government policy or lack of it. To rub it in, they then end the messaging with a pointer to the early years of his administration when oil production boosted GDP.

Mahama drew attention to how he oversaw a relatively peaceful political environment and upheld Ghana’s democratic tradition. Despite mostly unfair criticisms, he told voters that he ensured free and fair elections in 2016, where he conceded defeat to Nana Akufo-Addo, solidifying Ghana’s reputation for political stability. He could not be blamed for exercising his bragging rights around investments in education including the Community Day Senior High School project, which improved access to secondary education; expansion of the National Health Insurance Scheme; and increased access to healthcare facilities.

While he can’t match the records of incumbent President in shuttle diplomacy, Mahama did not shy away from highlighting his key role in regional diplomacy, including efforts to mediate political crises in neighboring countries like Burkina Faso.

As the dust settles, the Bawumia team will be assessing their communication failure in not leveraging on some of the major scandals that docked Mahama. How on earth were they unable to convince voters that they can’t trust a guy involved in a contract to brand public buses with photos of Ghanaian presidents with a whopping $3.6 million. What about the GYEEDA Affair? The Ghana Youth Employment and Entrepreneurial Development Agency (GYEEDA) was implicated in the misappropriation of funds meant for youth employment programs. Yet the youths of Ghana were allowed by Bawumia to trust their faiths in the man’s hands! Again? How on earth did the Bawumia campaign miss the opportunity to paint all of the country black with the ghost of the SADA Controversy? The Savannah Accelerated Development Authority (SADA), established to develop Ghana’s northern regions, faced allegations of mismanagement and corruption involving millions of cedis. And then comes the Ford Expedition Gift Imbroglio! Mahama was accused of accepting a Ford Expedition vehicle from a Burkinabe contractor who had won lucrative government contracts, raising concerns about conflict of interest and ethical breaches.

From all indications, it appears the people of Ghana are fine to forgive economic mismanagement and persistent allegations of corruption preferring instead to settle for a legacy of focus on infrastructure development and commitment to democracy. His manifesto, Mahama’s First 120 Days Social Contract with the People of Ghana, was a fine read. The next four years will prove whether the people’s gamble with Mahama will pay off.

For the renewed presidency of John Dramani Mahama, which by the way, reminds us of the return of Donald Trump of the United States, the challenges facing him are humongous. But he has the parliamentary majority needed to push through his agenda. His legacy will be anchored on a number of policy areas of which analysts are now on the look out to asses his soon to be appointed cabinet. His appointments will give a window to his succes or failure in areas crucial in addressing Ghana’s current challenges while building on lessons from his previous tenure.

On debt management, who will be his point person in building on Ghana’s recent debt restructuring success by adopting prudent fiscal policies to prevent further accumulation of unsustainable debt? Mahama needs to improve revenue collection through tax reforms and combating tax evasion. Are there lessons that he’d pick from the tax reforms components of Tinubunomics? In controlling inflation, Africa will be on the look out for Mahama to deliver a template on successful measures to address rising inflation, particularly in food prices, by supporting local production and reducing dependency on imports.

If his Minister for Employment has no track records of expertise in youth employment through aggressive skills development programmes and projects and incentivizing private sector growth, particularly in industries like technology and manufacturing, he has beautifully set himself up to fail. Of course Mahama must do everything he can to rid himself of the ghosts of GYEEDA by not bringing close to him, anybody that resembles the crooks that misappropriated funds meant to give young people career prospects a decade ago

If you are no proponent of Economic Diversification, Mahama should not have you on the shortlist for consideration either as trade or economic portfolio. Ghana should have reduced yesterday its undue reliance on commodities like gold, cocoa, and oil. But if by tomorrow, Mahama pays more attention to investing in agriculture, renewable energy, and digital technology, Ghana will not easily forget his second coming.

It is expected that the President-elect will defend his credentials for infrastructure through his policy around sustainable energy solutions. Under him Ghana must expand its renewable energy capacity, through solar and wind to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and prevent future power crises and by so doing wave a final goodbye to the ghosts of Dumsor. While on it, he must strengthen public-private partnerships for energy infrastructure investments. In choosing his international partners for energy, he must keep away from Western leaders who’d preach to him the gospel according to jettisoning oil to embrace exclusively clean energy despite oil still supporting a significant chunk of the economy of Ghana. Amongst the friends he made while serving as a member of European and Pan African Parliaments’ Ad hoc Committee on Cooperation, he must know who to run away from and who to embrace as international partners willing and able to respects Ghana’s sovereignty and facilitate the provision of targeted subsidies to ensure affordable electricity for low-income households while promoting efficient energy use.

If his job description for Minister for Transport does not include proveable experience and expertise in managing investment in road and rail networks, he must withdraw and edit it. It is the imperative of Ghana’s time in history to enhance connectivity between rural and urban areas, promoting trade and economic activity. He must expand and modernize ports and airports to make Ghana a regional logistics hub. He did it before. He must do it again in his second coming.

A President Mahama must prioritise building on existing healthcare infrastructure by improving access to quality care, particularly in underserved rural areas. He must strengthen public health initiatives to address ongoing issues like malaria and rising non-communicable diseases. Strengthening of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) to ensure universal coverage and address challenges like delays in claims payments should be a priority..

Building on his efforts up to 2016 and whatever accomplishments of his predecessor, President Mahama must accelerate efforts to make senior high school universally accessible and improve technical and vocational training to align with market needs.

The promise of constituting the leanest and most efficient government in the fourth Republic of Ghana is easy to say because lean government is the new trend. So, this President can’t listen to anyone who tells him to create more ministerial portfolios. He however must give consideration to refocusing existing portfolios and perhaps rename or merge some ministeries. For instance it might serve Ghana well to have a ministry for institutional reforms and digitisation into which ministeries with overlapping portfolios could be collapsed. Such a ministry could be tasked with strengthening  anti-corruption institutions like the Office of the Special Prosecutor and the Auditor-General’s office. It must facilitate policies around transparent procurement processes and punish financial mismanagement to rebuild public trust. His Year One accomplishment must include Public Sector Efficiency. This is as urgent as it is. Ghana should urgently show other African  countries how to reduce bureaucratic inefficiencies and streamline service delivery to make government programmes and projects more effective. While at it, it must foster greater civic engagement with the civil society to ensure inclusivity in decision-making and policy implementation.

As of today Ghana ranks 133 out of 191 countries and maintains the same human development index (HDI) value for 2020 and 2021 with 0.632. This puts the country in the medium human development category, according to UNDP report. Between 1990 and 2021, Ghana’s Human Development Index (HDI) value grew from 0.460 to 0.632, reflecting an increase of 37.4%. However, though Ghana falls in the medium human development category, when considered for unequal distribution of human development, the country records a loss of 27.5 per cent in its HDI. For instance, Ghana’s level of gender inequality remains high over the years and ranked 130 out of 170 countries in 2021 in terms of gender inequality between female and male achievements. President Mahama has every reason to take Social Protection and Welfare seriously. He must make work out of poverty alleviation, expand social protection programmes to cushion the impact of rising living costs on vulnerable populations. Genuine focus should go to food security by supporting smallholder farmers with subsidies, access to credit, and modern farming techniques. Affordable housing in urban centres has remained a challenge. There can’t be a better time than now to partner with private developers to create affordable housing units to address the housing deficit.

Not unimportant is how President John Mahama will perform in the international stage with special reference to Regional Leadership and Foreign Policy. The principles enshrined in Ghana’s 1992 Constitution, particularly Article 40, which underscores the promotion and protection of the nation’s interests, respect for international law, and adherence to the principles of organisations such as the United Nations and the African Union, have continued to guide the country at the international stage. Over the years, the foreign policy has evolved to adapt to changing international dynamics. It is the hope that Mahama will remain consistent in the area of economic diplomacy and will leverage Ghana’s strategic position in West Africa to attract foreign direct investment and promote trade through agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Doing this will not preclude him from continuing to play a mediating role in regional conflicts to ensure peace and stability in the sub-region.

In conclusion, the 2024 elections that returned John Dramani Mahama as President underscores Ghana’s resolve to give him a shot at navigating the country’s economic recovery while upholding its democratic traditions. That he received as high as 56.55% mandate by Ghanaians indicates the readiness of the people to give him another chance. He can’t take this for granted by assuming that he has completely been forgiven his sins of old. He needs to rebuild trust amongs Ghanaians. As independent onlooker but one with a vested interest in the Pan-African agenda, I urge Mr President to place accountability and legacy building high on his agenda. It is not enough to state in his contract with the people of Ghana that he’d establish a robust code of conduct and standards for all government officials. The people of Ghana ade more interested in his clear mechanisms to address scandals and allegations of corruption from the past to rebuild credibility. Resting on this, he has no option but to focus on completing unfinished projects from his previous tenure, particularly in infrastructure and energy, to strengthen his governance legacy. By focusing on these recommended imperatives of the time, Mahama can address Ghana’s current challenges while leveraging his experience in rebuilding trust among Ghanaians and Africans.

The author, Collins Nweke is opinion-maker writer with The Brussels Times. A Fellow of both the Chartered Institute of Public Management of Nigeria and the Institute of Management Consultants, he serves on the Governing Board of the International Association of Research Scholars & Administrators, where he is also a Fellow. He features on several Afrocentric media as Global Affairs Analyst. A Green Party Municipal Legislator in the legislature 2006 – 2025, he writes from Brussels, Belgium.

Clean Energy Transition: the global south versus the world.

In this extensive duo conversation, Secretary General of CBL-ACP Chamber of Commerce, Thomas De Beule and I were engaged by journalist Stephen Imediegwu of RadioNow FM Lagos. Within the framework of a mission to Nigeria to unveil and promote the 2nd Nigeria Belgium Luxembourg Business Forum, holding in Brussels, Belgium on 18 – 20 September 2024, we sought to speak to the notion of Oil been a dead commodity.

Celebrating Cultural Diversity and Identity through Street Art in Ostend, Belgium

Street Art is defining and redefining contemporary communities around the world. Of the diverse use Fine Artists are putting the art form to, the ones that appeal to me the most are cultural-identity expression and social-political commentaries or activism if you like.

When Tonia and I migrated out of Nigeria and made Ostend, Belgium our new home, Africans, and non-Belgians in general, were barely seen nor heard in everything and everywhere. But all that have gradually and incrementally been changing. This is to our delight because the moment the kids started arriving, we realised that they did not ask to be born here. We brought them into the world here. This is their natural home. If we were going to simply sit back and lament about the lack of intercultural awareness, not to talk of racism, and do nothing to change beliefs, they would grow up here and meet the same situation that we met. Is that not a parental failure in some ways?

When we signed up as volunteers and joined Réginald Moreels to form Ostend’s first interracial community organisation, Jakoeboe vzw, of which I went on to become its founding President, it was an intentional decision. Our message was: let us bring cultures together, to get to know one another better, communicate and relate better. When I took up a course of study of Management in the Social Economy and focused my research on the use of cultural products as means to tackle cultural conflicts, for intercultural cohesion building, again it was an intentional decision that culminated in the establishment of the Exotic Kitchen. This was a project under The Global Village, that served as Ostend’s first intercultural centre with fusion kitchen & catering, manned by the new Belgians who had made Ostend their new home. All of these in a social profit context.

The Exotic Kitchen became a home for that lonely migrant with passion for culinary art but no avenue to express it beyond his or her tiny family unit, if there is a family. They could cook their national dishes and curious Ostenders could discover and enjoy these new meals and get to have conversations with the cook about their country, people, culture, life in Belgium, you name it. And gradually walls of fear are being broken down and bonds of friendships replacing them.

I am not saying that we are where we ought to be, but we are on the right path in recognising that inter-culturality is our reality of today. If anything, our cities will get more, not less culturally diverse than in the coming years. We can choose to be in denial of this inevitability or accept it and figure out ways to manage our city’s interplay of cultures effectively and efficiently.

Some of us that are more courageous and daring but not necessarily more intelligent than our forebears, again made the intentional decision to embrace politics as a tool to register our presence, get our voices heard, accentuate the things that are working well while working from policy and project angle, to change the wrong beliefs and sometimes outright racism. Those massages resonated with many hence when I joined party politics almost 18 years ago and told the voters that together with them, I would work to manage the intercultural reality facing us, they believed me, and I got elected.

When I spot Street Arts that identify with and give expression to Cultural Diversity and Identity, they give me optimism that we are not going back to the dark times of denialism of our intercultural reality. The Street Arts are reflecting the cultural and social identity of Ostend. These Fine Artists use this art form to celebrate local heritage, commemorate events, and honour significant figures or landmarks.

Some make in unique ways, some compelling social and political commentaries with their Street Art, expressing implied political opinions sometimes to Far-Right elements that we should all be in it together. In many ways, the Street Artists are equally about community engagement and empowerment. Their projects often involve collaboration with local communities, fostering a sense of ownership and pride. Community-driven art projects do engage youth and marginalised groups, providing them with a creative outlet and a voice.

I have no idea who the Street Artist is whose work has caught my fancy. And he did not sign it off, except I missed it. But he spoke to me from different dimensions. His painting of three African women and a child plays a multifaceted role. To me it serves as a vehicle for cultural expression, social commentary, adds to urban renewal of our beautiful Ostend, and it engages our diverse communities. The impact of Street Art goes beyond mere aesthetics. We are in dialogue now because it fostered the dialogue. Above all Street Arts are transforming our public spaces into vibrant cultural hubs.

US-Nigeria Partnership in a Changing Global Arena

Nigeria’s Foreign Minister, H.E. Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, offered his perspectives, and the 4D strategic vision for and on the evolving Nigeria-United States partnership.

At the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington DC, Nigeria’s Foreign Minister, H.E. Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, offered his perspectives on the evolving Nigeria-United States partnership. The event, “US-Nigeria Partnership in the Changing Global Arena,” drew a distinguished audience comprising diplomatic figures, former US ambassadors to Nigeria, and policy experts. Moderated by Oge Onubogu, Director of the Wilson Center‘s Africa Program, the discussion centered on the multidimensional relationship between the two countries and its broader ramifications for global security and development.


Nigeria’s Strategic Role and Demographic Potential

Minister Tuggar emphasized the historical depth and strength of the US-Nigeria relationship, which dates back to Nigeria’s independence in 1960. Highlighting Nigeria’s role as a regional leader in Africa, he underscored Nigeria’s significant population, with over 200 million people, half of whom are under the age of 30, presenting both challenges and opportunities for the nation and the importance of collaboration in areas such as security, economic development, and democratic governance. The minister’s remarks were timely, coming on the heels of the recently concluded sixth US-Nigeria Binational Commission in Abuja, where both nations reaffirmed their commitment to addressing shared challenges.

The “4D” Agenda: Democracy, Development, Demography, and Diaspora

One of the central themes of Tuggar’s address was Nigeria’s new foreign policy vision, encapsulated in the “4D” agenda: Democracy, Development, Demography, and Diaspora – under President Bola Tinubu. He articulated how these pillars are integral to Nigeria’s strategy to navigate the complexities of the current global landscape.

Emphasizing Nigeria’s commitment to democracy, the minister highlighted the nation’s role in promoting democratic values across the African continent. He noted that Nigeria, with its demographic, is poised to harness the dividend of its growing population to drive sustainable development and economic growth.

On development, Minister Tuggar stressed the importance of infrastructure projects and economic reforms aimed at creating jobs and fostering inclusive growth. He outlined Nigeria’s ambitious infrastructure development plans, including the expansion of broadband cabling, the adoption of 5G technology, and the construction of gas pipelines to leverage Nigeria’s significant gas reserves; noting the importance of trade and investment partnerships with the United States to support these initiatives.

Engaging the Nigeria Diaspora community is a key focus of the administration; whether in terms of investment opportunities or tapping its diaspora human capital. The minister called for greater investment in Nigeria’s vast gas reserves as a transition fuel, which would support industrialization and energy security while also addressing climate change concerns. He spoke about the significance of intellectual property rights in protecting Nigeria’s burgeoning creative industries, which include Nollywood and the Afrobeats music scenes; buttressing the role the music genre has played in putting Nigeria on the global stage.

Security Cooperation and Counterterrorism

Addressing the issue of security, Tuggar acknowledged the challenges posed by terrorism and transnational crime in the West African region. He called for enhanced US-Nigeria cooperation in counterterrorism efforts, including the provision of advanced military equipment and training. The minister also highlighted Nigeria’s commitment to human rights and transparency in its security operations, noting the establishment of a human rights desk within the Nigerian Army.

The conversation also touched on Nigeria’s strategic autonomy in its foreign policy, with Ambassador Tuggar affirming the nation’s non-aligned stance. He stressed the importance of homegrown solutions to African problems and warned against the presence of foreign mercenaries and private military companies in the region. The minister reiterated Nigeria’s opposition to any form of external dominance and called for partnerships that respect Nigeria’s sovereignty and promote mutual benefit.

Internal Security Challenges and International Partnerships

Minister Tuggar also addressed Nigeria’s internal security challenges, particularly the fight against terrorism and insurgency. He highlighted the critical role of international partnerships in providing the necessary weapons, equipment, and technical support to combat these threats effectively. The minister called for a reevaluation of restrictions like the Leahy Law, which prohibits the sale of certain military equipment to Nigeria, arguing that such limitations hinder Nigeria’s ability to address security threats comprehensively.

Israel-Palestine Conflicts and Nigeria’s Stance

A key highlight of the discussion was Nigeria’s stance on global conflicts, such as the Israel-Palestine crisis and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Minister Tuggar expressed Nigeria’s support for a two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict and reaffirmed the nation’s commitment to upholding principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity in Ukraine.

The event marked Minister Tuggar’s first official visit to Washington, D.C., and he expressed optimism about the future of US-Nigeria relations.

Where is the African Interests in the US-China Battle for Influence?


US Secretary Of State, Antony Blinken has been back in Africa since Sunday 21 January 2024, for a week visit. Nigeria is one of his four planned stops.

Key question in the lips of Africa watchers is if Blinken Africa shuttle diplomacy is out of love for Africa? I’d say Nope!👎🏾 It can only be out of protection of America’s interests & investments, obviously!👍🏾
And Africa’s interests? Who’s protecting those? Certainly not its leaders, if they even know what Africa’s interests are… that is! Except for a tiny few.

I had a short interaction with Television Continental TVC anchor, Precious Amayo, around how Nigeria could derive its best interests. I even attempted a couple of suggestions.

In doing so, I reminded myself of an ongoing conversation at a Think Tank I am associated with, People Expertise & Excellence Foundation (PEEF) under the leadership of Dr. MUSA RABIU, FCIPM about the prospect of Nigeria commencing manufacture of Military Hardware at its Ajaokuta Steel Plant.

I was quick to assert that in the battle between the US & China over influence in Africa, the continent ought not have a dog in that fight. There ought to be sufficient space for all in a potentially prosperous Africa. Not Turkey, not Russia and others with eyes on the raw materials, minerals, and young human capital of Africa, should be ignored.

African Governments, especially led by Nigeria, must undertake a value analysis to determine their advantageous positioning with the US & China, as both powers battle for influence over Africa.

Ajaokuta Steel Plant Nigeria in its planned commencement of manufacturing of Military Hardware for instance, could become an almost insatiable market for weapon spare parts for America’s weapon industry?

Just thinking aloud…🤔 in this interview on TVC

Africa’s Justifiable Coups

Military coups in Africa over the decades

I was barely 6 months old when in January 1966, the first military seizure of power took place in my birth country Nigeria. Some 34 years thereafter, military rule held sway in Africa’s most populous nation. To a large extent, I could be rightly described not only as a ‘Warchild’ but also as a product of a military environment. To say the least, it is traumatising and perhaps psychologically deforming.

Outside textbook theories of the meaning of democracy, our generation of Nigerians only started learning in practical terms what true democracy is all about as from 1999. Some of us are adaptable but for very many of us, in our mid to late 30s, it was too late. Brut force, getting things the hard way, lack of inner peace, violence, aggression, and other vices had formed or deformed our psych. But not all of us!

While some of us believe these vices are normal, others consider them grossly abnormal. So we understand it when both young and old take to the streets embracing the military because they said they are the new messiahs that will bring them the good life, the prosperity that has eluded them for way too long.

When Bob Marley of blessed memory talked about chasing away the crazy baldheads out of the town, I now know that he was talking of no other than these African leaders that have determined that the children of Africa will not see or know peace.

The list is a mixed bag ranging from the often revered Gadaffi, who took over power by force, hung in there for 42 years and died in there rather than give power up. We can’t forget Omar Bongo either who stayed in for over four decades. Obiang is doing 44 years and counting while preparing his son, the Vice President to step in at any given moment. What about Museveni who has spent 38 years so far and won’t tolerate any opposition? We can’t loose sight of Paul Biya, can we? He’s been around as President for over 40 years and counting. But for a 4 year hiatus, Dennis Sassou Nguesso has held sway for 39 years. There are also the emerging oligarchs like Paul Kegame and Ali Bongo who have by one crooked means or the other have made the rulership of their fatherland a personal estate.

Do these abnormalities justify disruption of constitutional orders? No, not at all! While some of us maintain that coup is and remains an aberration, we understand the psychology of those who applaud the military boys for stepping in. The cliché that those who make peaceful coexistence difficult only makes violent dissent inevitable, comes handy here.

In all of these, some interesting queries around reshaping the world order are emerging. A couple of key emerging question are how well for Africa Western democracy is for the continent given that it was a forced system? Also how do you deal with neo-imperialism and its impact in retarding Africa’s growth? These are all germane issues worthy of interrogation but they should not be mixed up with the menace of power seizure with the barrels of the gun. These must be handled in isolation from the other even as closely related as they are.

To demonstrate the nature of coup as an aberration, there’s often a denial by ‘coupists’ that they committed a coup. An instance was in 2017 when in Zimbabwe, a military takeover brought Robert Mugabe’s 37-year rule to an end. Major General Sibusiso Moyo, who was one of the masterminds of the operation, appeared on television at the time, flatly denying it was a military takeover. In April 2021 after the death of the Chadian leader, Idriss Déby, the army installed his son as interim president, leading a transitional military council. His opponents called it a “dynastic coup” not a classic coup!

Two US researchers, Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne probably has the most plausible explanation for this denial when they concluded that coup leaders almost invariably deny their action was a coup in an effort to simply appear legitimate. One illegitimacy can not correct another or a hundred illegitimate actions.

My realist friend and comrade, Adetunji Omotola’s bluntness on this matter of coup in Africa is a truism that stirs us all in the face when he asserted that he sees all dictatorships collapsing this year with military take over of power. Irrespective of which side of the divide one is, there is perhaps a silent realisation that the soldiers might have naturally been assigned the role by Bob Marley of chasing the crazy baldheads out of town.