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Buhari Blessing and Burden of Corruption

Sometime today, President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria will arrive in London to join 50 other world leaders at a landmark international anti-corruption summit called by Prime Minister David Cameron. While on air en route London, he would probably be reading news reports about the United States (US) government and the European Union (EU) threats to withdraw support for his anti-corruption crusade on account of reluctance or even failure to reopen the Halliburton bribery scandal. Incidentally he would be sharing Summit and perhaps dinner table with US Secretary of State John Kerry. This will probably constitute private dinner talks between both of them.

Anyone who thought this Halliburton bribery scandal will go away soon without getting to the bottom of it has a big shock waiting. Just to bring you up to speed, the affair dates back to 1994 when the Nigerian government launched an ambitious plans to build the Bonny Island Natural Liquefied Gas Project. The affair had revealed, obviously long before we heard of any Panama Papers, an alleged network of secretive banks and offshore tax havens used to funnel $182 million in bribes to Nigerian officials in exchange for $6 billion in engineering and construction work for an international consortium of companies that included a then Halliburton subsidiary.

Forward to 2016. Prime Minister David Cameron, whose Conservative Party is this week recovering from the loss of London mayoral race to Labour Party’s Sadiq Khan despite a dirty anti-Muslim campaign is calling the “Anti-Corruption Summit London 2016” for three core reasons. Firstly to bring together world leaders, business, non-state actors and civil society to agree a package of practical steps to expose corruption so there is nowhere to hide. Secondly to punish corruption perpetrators and support those affected by corruption and lastly to drive out the culture of corruption wherever it exists. He is said to be giving President Buhari some prominence at the Summit by giving him a speaking slot at the plenary session. Exactly why is not immediately clear. At least not to ordinary mortals like you and I.

We can only surmise that President Buhari’s projected prominence in the London anti-corruption summit is an indication of how highly he is held in the international crusade against corruption. This is as much a blessing as it is a burden. It is a blessing because it places at the feet of Nigeria, some international goodwill that will be priceless resource in the task ahead. It however comes with the burden of high expectation that Mr President will truly stop at nothing, spare no one, no matter how highly placed, in the investigation and prosecution of corruption.

I should come back to the Halliburton affair because I think that it is one of the true tests of the President’s genuine resolve to fight corruption in Nigeria. Our friends and allies in the EU and the US are telling us that there appear to be some foot-dragging by Nigeria, to bring to books, Nigerian individuals already fingered in the investigation carried out in the United States because they are very big wigs. I think that Mr President needs to also do more to prove to critics that his anti-corruption crusade is not selective and that it targets only members of the opposition while some elements within the ranks and file of his ruling APC are said to be equally corrupt with no investigation initiated or arrests made.

The involvement of non-state actors and civil society operatives in the London meeting is a very good idea. Hopefully, unlike government representatives who are supposed to be nice, they can ask more penetrating and why not, even uncomfortable and nasty questions about the true state of global anti-corruption crusade and perhaps compel Western governments to use legal instruments already at their disposal to try, for example former heads of State, implicated in corruption but whose countries are reluctant to put them to trial. Wouldn’t it be fun to hear President Buhari privately ask Secretary John Kerry why he is pressurizing him to take on the big wigs in Nigeria. If the US is so sure of the evidence at its disposal why do they appears unwilling to use its “Foreign Corrupt Practices Act” to bring to trial by themselves, the Nigerian big wigs they perceive to be under shield by the Nigerian government?

I am not sure John Kerry or the US for that matter has ever heard this saying “Naija no dey fear threat” If they have, then there is nothing to worry about the threat to withhold assistance to nigeria because President Buhari is not expected to be shaken by it. That said, it may be fair to assume that given President Buhari’s dogmatic credentials, he is not leaving any stone unturned in fighting corruption. The man means business I would think. But the man also needs time. Should he be given all the the time in the world? No, because the world is impatient to see arrant corruption, those with recklessness and impunity committed to the annals of history. One low-hanging fruit though is for him to act in ways that show that current members of his ruling APC are also focus of corruption investigations. He needs no more time to do that if he cares whether his corruption fight should be taken seriously.

My TV Continental interview on the London anti-corruption summit is available here

Sunday Sermon on Workers’ Day

This Sunday 1 May 2016 is special. It doubles as Workers Day. Sadly workers are faced with a gloom outlook that there is not much to celebrate this Worker’s Day Sunday. What is worse is that the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has told Workers to brace up for another bad year because the outlook for 2017 may be worse than 2016.

Those who are lucky to be in employment are also facing uncertainty: job security level is low as permanent contracts are scarce. People are now having to work longer because pension ages are increased. Manual labourers are dropping dead on the workfloor because, afraid of calling in sick, workers who should be marching to their doctors’ consultations are hurrying instead to work. Informal arrangements are being made daily by the most vulnerable of workers who accept pay-cuts below minimum wage in other to remain in employment. Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises are squeezed so tight that those who manage to stay afloat of bankruptcy filling, have joined the league of the new working poor.

Underemployment has become the new norm especially for the migrant workers. Medical Doctors trained in one part of the world, usually in countries with rogue leaders, would have to retrain for up to three years in other countries, usually countries with greedy paternalistic leaders, and still end up as auxiliary nurses. Teachers trained in developing economies are finding it even harder to find jobs as ‘cleaners on contract’ in schools where they are supposed to be teaching in the developed economies.

There is nothing really to write home about Workers whose day it should have been today. I therefore decided to turn my Workers Day Sunday sermon to another ugly matter that has being trending in my native Nigeria in recent past: The Fulani Herdsmen. There is something about Nigeria and trending stories that beats imagination. There is no clean press anywhere in the world, I must admit, but Nigeria is a unique case. Except you don’t mind your fingers burnt badly, it is very important to verify every story out of the Nigerian media for reliability. Over the past weeks and worsening by the day, the media have being awash with stories of Fulani Cattle Herdsmen attacking and killing scores of people especially in the North-Eastern part of Nigeria while both State and Federal Governments appear unable or unwilling to confront the mayhem. The previous week, a think-tank of Nigerians in which I am a member, had put together a team under my prodding to verify the facts and come up with a position paper for the Presidency on activities of the Fulani Herdsmen. While that was ongoing, I had to go on air at Television Continental (TVC) to offer my periodic thoughts on the State of World Affairs, this time on Burundi one year after political crisis erupted there.

Hell was nearly let loose amongst a minority of Nigerians who berated me for speaking about Burundi and not about my native Nigeria and indeed, Igboland where Fulani herdsmen were killing my ‘people’ in their hundreds. An isolated number of those who reacted to the TVC interview did so in good conscience and certainly meant well. Others were irrational and surely unfair, hiding perhaps under the latest crisis to subtly play their Igbo secessionist card. In my rather measured reactions, I always opened with a flat condemnation of the killings but refused to divulge that I was working on a reaction but first I needed to get the facts straight. I chose rather to ask whether it was being suggested that I turn down media invitation to offer thoughts on other parts of the world because Nigeria was on fire?

In any case, while trying to get my head around what’s actually happening with the Fulani Herdsmen, more questions than recommended solutions have continued to play up in my head. For a start, some serious mayhem is confirmed to have been unleashed in parts of Igboland by a group alleged to be Fulani herdsmen. How sure can we be that these killers are indeed Fulani herdsman? Of course there are numerous terrorism theories out there but one that played up with added concern is: could it be that Boko Haram has infiltrated Igboland disguised as Fulani herdsmen? How come it took the President more than 24 hours to issue a statement on the matter? What about the State and Federal security apparatus? Why are they not being deployed to curb the menace?

The scaremongers are also having a field day just as the conspiracy theorists are strategizing on the most efficient ways to wipe up sentiments on the back of the latest confusion and despicable killings. Some correlation has been made with 1804 with the emergence of the Fulani in the geographic space now called Nigeria, gaining dominance over the Hausas who hitherto occupied the space. They came not with smiles but with terror. At the time, the Fulani invaders as they were and still are called, showed no interest in negotiation but seized the lands after fierce battles. Some 20 years later, around 1823, the same ethnic group showed up in Ilorin ostensibly to assist the Are-ona-kakanfo, ruler of Ilorin, in revolt against his sovereign, Alafin Aole, the Alafin of Oyo. The ruler’s confidence was said to be gained and a strategic position was gained to facilitate his murder. Since then, till date, Ilorin has been under Fulani rule. A couple of years later, in 1825, Yorubaland was the focus of the Fulani conquerors as history told us. They were not pretentious of their desire to islamize the Yoruba Kingdom and Empire. If the fierce battle of Ibadan did not save the day, Yorubaland as we know it today would perhaps be an annex of the Fulani Empire.

As these historical narratives dance around my head, I can’t help but wonder if these thoughts are helpful or destructive. Is it paranoia or are these handwritings on the wall for the Igbo’s to read and switch on the alert button? One thing is crystal clear in all of these: the case for a united Nigeria is not receiving any boost with these unfolding massacre of the Igbo man, woman and child in their sleep or in broad daylight. Have I given up hope in project Nigeria? Absolutely not but I am hopeless about the current crop of Nigerian leaders. They seem not to have any value for individual Nigerian life. They appear by their actions to be disconnected from the Nigerians that should have been their number one priority in the first place. They place no value on dialogue and are obviously permanently hunted by the prospect of disintegration of the country to the point that, for them, discussing national sovereignty is akin to break-up of Nigeria. The sooner it is realized that a purposeful dialogue is inevitable, the sooner Nigeria is saved from the impending disintegration with bloodshed. I hope I am wrong that the current ravage of the Fulani Herdsmen or whatever name they go by, is strongly indicative of a worsening threat to Nigeria’s unity.

An Open Letter to President Muhammadu Buhari on Anti-Poor Economic Policies of Nigeria

“I cannot find any justification for the same group of people, who have been particularly hit, to be hit again by their president through the N50 tax. I guess the rule here should be that you don’t hit a man who is already down…”

I write to you because I am concerned about the state of micro-entrepreneurs and low income earners in Nigeria. I am empowered to write you on the strength of paragraph 50 of your 2016 Budget Statement as presented on 22 December 2015 to the joint sitting of the National Assembly, which reads “We will welcome and be responsive to your feedback and criticisms”

Your Excellency Sir, to go straight to the point, the circular released on 15 January 2016 by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) directing all banks and financial institutions to commence the charging of N50 on banking instrument transactions from N1,000 and above, is unfriendly and insensitive to the growing army of Nigeria’s micro-entrepreneurs, low income earners and the unemployed otherwise referred to as the poor.

Mr President, while I support the initiative as part of recent efforts by your administration to boost non-oil revenue, there are reasons to believe that the policy could have been better thought-through in terms of its impact on the struggling poor. And that is the main thrust of this write-up.

A responsive government should not be in the business of instituting internally generated revenue mechanism that tightens its grip on micro-businesses and the poor. If this policy step was informed by the suggestion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the government takes steps to improve its public finances by increasing tax compliance and blocking leakages, you may also recall that the same IMF recommended for example that you prioritize better, more efficient corporate tax collection for the multinationals and high-end earners. I have wondered why your administration decided starting with economic measures that will drive the last nails into the coffin of a suffering lot.

Your party, All Progressives Congress (APC) manifesto highlights accelerated economic growth as one of its 7 cardinal programmes. This policy may be well intended however the reality and unintended consequences is that this policy is going to put structural obstacles and challenges in the way of the very people that need to be lifted out of poverty or prevent them dropping into poverty trap. For those who live from minute by minute funds, this is unaffordable tax. In addition implementation on the ground always takes on a different format because of Nigeria’s many weak institutions and poorly trained staff.

I note with limited relief that transactions on savings accounts are exempt from the N50 charges. Limited relief because while the exemption makes sense, it does not go far enough. It seems to suggest that if you are someone of a small financial means, current account should be out of your reach. Such mindset contradicts the whole cashless society campaign that the country has undertaken over recent years and with huge success too! I worry that with the N50 charges, those on the lower ebb of the earning ladder would revert to the old way of keeping physical cash under their mattresses. I do not intend to reproduce here the benefits to micro-businesses of a cashless society but suffice to highlight the added security and efficiency that it provides the consumer and how vulnerable they shall be rendered (once again!) in its absence. Pick-pocketing and highway robbery are but two examples of the old order that may make a comeback.

Your Excellency Sir, there is also the issue of the newly introduced current account maintenance charges (a directive from the CBN to all commercial banks), to deduct N1 from EVERY N1000! transaction. This policy will significantly affect the low paid who draw monies from their current account in low figures because that is all they can afford. Policies like this will make people keep more cash at home, a move that could increase armed robbery across the nation as robbers will believe more cash will be available in the homes. Government itself is at the losing end too. A time when efforts should be intensified to create a robust formal economy is the worse time in Nigeria’s developmental trajectory to discourage some segments of consumers from fully having all transactions pass through electronic payment systems or the financial institutions. Cash payments actually give a boost to the informal economy and this is exactly one of the unanticipated fall-outs of the N50 tax. And I am sure that is not what you want.

In analyzing the impact of the fallen commodity prices as preface to your 2016 budget presentation, you lamented rightfully as follows “This huge decline is having a painful effect on our economy. Consumption has declined at all levels…..The small business owners and traders have been particularly hard hit by this state of affairs” You could not have said it better, Mr President. I cannot find any justification for the same group of people, who have been particularly hit, to be hit again by their president through the N50 tax. I guess the rule here should be that you don’t hit a man who is already down or as someone here will say, you can’t naked a naked man especially when you did promise, Mr President that you will “as a matter of urgency, address the immediate problems of … the terrible living conditions of the extremely poor and vulnerable Nigerians”

Permit me the luxury of proposing a mutually beneficial banking transaction charge for micro-entrepreneurs and low income earners. Before delving into the nitty gritty of the proposal, I should submit I am not reinventing the wheel. The proposal is based on your plan to create “proper linkage of budgeting to strategic planning” by enhancing the utilization of the Government Integrated Financial Management Information Systems (GIFMIS) to improve financial management. It also attempts to take into accounts all of the draw-backs I have highlighted above, turning them from threats to opportunities, both for the consumer and for government. The fact that the recently established Efficiency Unit is working across Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to identify and eliminate wasteful spending, duplication and other inefficiencies already provides a good cushion to shore up the proposal. Here it is!

All consumers are charged the flat rate of N50 as originally proposed. Or better still the threshold for charging is raised to a higher level. Banks should also be obliged to “know your customer” and are expected to ensure abuse is mitigated. If this is done then the suggestions below will not be necessary.
The paid charges to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and financial institutions are held in an account which could be designated as Transactions Charges Suspense Account, similar to the NIPOST Stamp Duties Account as initially conceived.
The difference however is that rather than transfer monthly the collected duties those collected from the eligible consumers are held back at the DMBs. Eligibility criteria will obviously be established beforehand and may include individuals on minimum wage, unemployed, micro-entrepreneurs with turn-over not exceeding an amount to be determined in line with existing norms, et cetera
At the end of the financial year, an eligibility form is completed by the consumer. Once ascertained and approved, the money is refunded. At the same time, I am confident that the newly established Efficiency Unit will take on policy impact evaluation and assessment as a standard practice rather than the exception that it currently is in Nigeria.

Among other advantages, this system allows for some sort of compulsory savings which motivates the consumer to be involved in the scheme, taking away the real fear of inadvertently losing the gains so far made in the cashless campaign. This can also form part of the stage in systematically building a formal economy. The micro-entrepreneur of today may become the multinational business leader of tomorrow

By Collins NWEKE with inputs from Titi Banjoko and Jide Iyaniwura. Collins, Titi and Jide are members of the London-based think-tank, Nigerian Leadership Forum

Evaluating Africa-EU Climate Partnership Post-Paris

On the sidelines of the conference to launch the Covenant on Demographic Change in Europe at the EU Committee of the Regions, I took some time out to speak to the EU Public Affairs programme, ‘Inside the Issues’ to evaluate the COP21 climate conference that took place in Paris, France. The broad focus of the brief but punchy talk was EU-Africa climate change relations within the context of the global discussions at COP21. On one hand you have African countries who do the least to pollute but pay the highest price in climate change terms. On the other hand you have the historical dimension of the EU that has been a leading contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.

In this context the specific topics covered include:

The credibility of an EU-Africa partnership on climate change, given their divergent views.
Who were the winners and losers at COP21
Should developed countries, like the EU, pay the highest price in contributing to a better climate?

Click here or on the picture to watch the discussion, which also includes the perspective of a researcher, thus balancing politics with academics and in my opinion, excellently well delivered.

An Age-friendly Europe?

Press release

7 December 2015
Towards an Age-Friendly Europe: Launch of the EU Covenant on Demographic Change

Today, the AFE-INNOVNET Thematic Network on innovation for age-friendly environments is very pleased to launch the Covenant on Demographic Change. The Covenant is set to become the new EU-wide association gathering local, regional and national authorities, civil society organisations, universities, and businesses that commit to cooperate and implement evidence-based solutions to support active and healthy ageing as a comprehensive answer to Europe’s demographic challenge.

Europe is rapidly ageing. People aged 65+ represented 17.4% of the population in 2010 and this is set to reach 30% in 2060. Therefore, today’s urgency is to find sustainable solutions to empower people to live healthily, actively and independently for longer, in order to lower the pressure put on family carers and on public health and long-term care budgets, as well as to enhance quality of life and well-being in later age.
“We think that the best approach to ageing is the promotion of age-friendly communities where public space, transport, housing and local services are conceived with the needs of all generations in mind, fostering also solidarity and cooperation between generations”, underlined Markku Markkula, President of the Committee of the Regions.

Public authorities, as main providers of services and responsible for territorial planning, are playing a key role here. This is why, with the support of the Committee of the Regions, the European Commission and in close cooperation with the World Health Organisation, more than 150 subnational authorities, research centres and civil society organisations have gathered today to launch the Covenant on Demographic Change.
The Covenant on Demographic Change, legally established as an international non-profit association under the Belgian law, is open to all interested parties (i.e. local, regional and national authorities, as well as civil society organisations, industries, research centres and universities) that voluntarily commit to making age-friendly environments a reality in their communities and to share their experience with other Covenant members.

The Covenant “harnesses the expertise and experience of stakeholders at local, regional and national levels, along with that of European policymakers. This collective knowledge will help tackle the challenges of an ageing society”, commented Commissioner Marianne Thyssen in her introductory speech. “By formalising and structuring discussions with local and regional actors, it will give both the technical framework and the political impetus to create age-friendly environments”, she continued.

By joining the Covenant, European local and regional authorities will position themselves at the forefront in addressing population ageing. They will benefit from a wide range of opportunities for mutual learning and partnership, various tools to implement and assess the impact of their age-friendly initiatives, and will lead the way to help Europe become age-friendly.

“The idea of such a Covenant was born during the European Year 2012 on Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations. After several years of hard work, we are very happy to launch it today at the Committee of the Regions”, said Anne-Sophie Parent, Secretary General of AGE Platform European and AFE-INNOVNET Coordinator. “We are even more pleased to see that already 70 organisations, including 43 cities and regions, have already decided to join. This is a great step to make population ageing an opportunity for Europe and finally recognise seniors as an asset and not as a burden”, she added.

“After two years of hard work within the AFE-INNOVNET Thematic Network, we want to maintain and expand our position on rehabilitation of our elder citizens, to keep physically active and self-reliant – enabling to “Life Long Living”, said Mayor Jacob Bjerregaard, from the Fredericia Municipality in Denmark. “By joining the Covenant, Fredericia gets a unique opportunity to stay ahead of the challenges and opportunities linked to demographic change”, he concluded.

For more information, please contact Julia Wadoux, AFE-INNOVNET Coordinator, at julia.wadoux@age-platform.eu or Tel.: +32.2.280.14.70.

Analyzing Radical Left for Britain After Greece

Public reactions to Corbyn’s agenda illustrate both his potential to advance and the hurdles in his path – Peter Kellner, President YouGov Polling UK

Some of Jeremy Corbyn’s policies are going down well with voters – but if he is to stand any chance of leading Labour to victory, he needs to sound and look like a Prime Minister.

Despite the avalanche of criticism from much of the media, and the bleak despair of many Labour MPs, Jeremy Corbyn exudes a calm, determined optimism. He and his supporters think their critics underestimate his appeal. They talk of a public yearning for his “new politics”. They believe his whole approach, combining new policies with a quieter, less brutal tone, will win the converts that the party needs to win in 2020. Could they be right?

Results from this month’s YouGov/Prospect survey suggest that Corbyn is onto something. His style, and some of his policies, are going down well with many voters. He cannot be dismissed outright. That said, his path to power remains steep and rocky. Victory looks unlikely. But, then, winning his party’s leadership looked equally improbable when he launched his campaign, so maybe we should not be too dogmatic about his chances.

Public reactions to Corbyn’s agenda illustrate both his potential to advance and the hurdles in his path. We listed fifteen policies associated with his campaign for the party leadership. Not all are likely to survive; he has already modified his stance on some issues and put others out to consultation. Yet our list shows clearly where voters are on his side and where they are not.

With six of the fifteen policies we tested, supporters greatly outnumber opponents. What is striking is that, in conventional ideological terms, they are his six most left-wing policies – nationalisation of rail and energy companies, higher corporation tax, greater regulation of low pay and private rents, and local authority control of free schools and academies. Corbyn is tapping into a broad public sentiment that is hostile not only to “old politics” but also to the way people with power outside government have (as most voters see it) used that power to benefit themselves rather than the wider public interest.
The issues on which Corbyn has failed to win over voters are rather different. His defence policies all get a clear thumbs-down – scrapping Trident, ruling out attacks on Islamic State in Syria and, more generally, reducing defence spending. Very few voters think Britain should leave NATO – something Corbyn has urged in the past, though not said recently. He also has only minority support for increasing significantly the number of refugees allowed to settle in Britain. Likewise with his desire for a united Ireland – though this is the policy proposal with by far the largest number of don’t knows.

Apart from raising the minimum wage, which is immensely popular, Corbyn’s redistribution agenda attracts few supporters. By almost two-to-one, voters reject his ambition to abolish the Government’s cap on welfare benefits. Nor do voters warm to the idea of a national maximum wage of £1 million year (again, an idea floated by some supporters during his leadership campaign, though not one that he himself has proclaimed).

Our results on student tuition fees are intriguing. Corbyn has proposed higher taxes on companies and the rich to pay for the abolition of fees. As our survey finds widespread support for higher corporation tax, one can assume that, in isolation, this would attract broad approval. But would this be the most popular use of spare government cash? We tested this by pitching the abolition of tuition fees against a 3p rise in income tax. If voters really regard the abolition of fees as a priority, they would agree to higher taxes. They don’t. As with ending the welfare cap, voters are wary of anything that might lead to a higher tax bill for themselves.

The simple way to summarise our policy findings is that they are a mixed bag. But there is more to it than that. The bag has some specific features – strong support for some of Corby’s policies on curbing the market and expanding state control, but not for his international or tax-raising agenda.

As a thought experiment, let’s suppose he responded to these findings by performing u-turns on defence, welfare, refugees, tuition fees and Ireland – and that he managed to persuade his own supporters that he was not betraying their dreams and his ideals. Would he then be in course to lead Labour to victory in 2020?

Probably not – at least, not unless he managed to overcome other drawbacks detected by our survey. These are highlighted by a question about him that we asked from time to time during the last parliament about Ed Miliband. How do voters react to the thought of him becoming Prime Minister? Only 19 per cent say they would be delighted; far more, 46 per cent, say they would be dismayed. (A further 18 per cent wouldn’t mind). That produces a net score of minus 27 (% delighted minus % dismayed). Ed Miliband’s score at the same, early point, in his party leadership was minus eight. By the time of this year’s election campaign, Miliband’s score had worsened to minus 25. So Corbyn does far worse than his predecessor at the same point in his leadership, and no better than when Miliband was on the point of leading his party to a heavy defeat.

As other YouGov research has found, Corbyn generally has the worst initial rating generally of any new opposition leader since polls started monitoring them six decades ago. One major reason is that, while most voters like a number of his left-wing policies, they are not convinced that a Corbyn government will deliver greater prosperity for people like them. Not surprisingly, they reckon that it would benefit families on low incomes, and punish people who run big companies. By a narrow margin, they think public services such as schools and hospitals would benefit. But millions fear that Prime Minister Corbyn would be bad for workers, “people like you” and the economy overall.

The one crumb of comfort in these findings is that there are still large numbers of don’t knows in this battery of questions – between 28 and 36 per cent. This suggests that a large part of the national jury is still out. Corbyn needs to convince it that he can make his popular policies work in practice. On the other hand, his critics – in the media and the Conservative Party – have not really got going in attacking the specifics of his programme. Those current “don’t knows” may offer a possible upside for Corbyn, but they also threaten a downside. In one specific sense, we have been here before. In the run-up to the 2005 general election, Michael Howard sought to exploit the fact that many of his specific policies were popular – on immigration, crime, welfare and so on. His slogan – “are you thinking what we’re thinking?” – sought to exploit public support for his brand of populism.

Yet the Tories still lost heavily. For the third election in a row, Britain elected fewer than 200 Conservative MPs. One major reason was that Howard was seen as too right-wing. Some people who would endorse his social agenda in, say, a pub argument, found the same policies less attractive in the mouth of a man auditioning to be Prime Minister.

Corby could face a similar problem. Other YouGov research finds an enormous gulf – far bigger even than Howard faced – between where most voters place themselves on a left-right scale (mainly near the centre) and where they place Corbyn. He is thought to be way out on the Left, much further removed from the centre than Howard, on the Right, was seen a decade ago. It’s not that voters always reject extreme policies; but they prefer them to be implemented by moderate politicians, for this provides the reassurance that they are being carried out in order to further the national interest, rather than an ideological agenda.

The outcome could depend on the outcome of the character war that is certain to be fought over Corbyn himself. His “new politics” tone is certainly popular. Compared with David Cameron, voters regard Corbyn as more in touch with people like them, more willing to listen to other points of view and more trustworthy. These are important advantages. In principle, they could be exploited to persuade voters that he is a national, and not just a factional, leader.

However, Corbyn does less well on three other attributes. He made a point at Labour’s conference of stressing his devotion to the best British values. Voters divide evenly on this when they compare the two leaders. And on patriotism, which Corbyn also claimed as a particular virtue, and competence, which always matters at election time, Cameron enjoys large leads.

Once again, there is plenty of time for public attitudes to change. And, of course, if Corbyn is still Labour’s leader at the next election, he will be up against a new Tory leader. We shall see in due course how much difference this makes to the outcome of the character war. If he is to stand any chance of leading Labour to victory, he needs above all to sound and look like a Prime Minister. This means not just promoting popular policies and stressing his devotion to “new politics”. It also means dispelling fears that he is incompetent, extreme and unpatriotic – and also wearing a suit that fits, rather than an oversized jacket, ill-matched trousers and a badly knotted tie. Of course sartorial concerns shouldn’t matter. After the revolution, comrade, let’s hope they won’t. Meanwhile, they do.

Published by Peter Kellner under the title “Analysis: Could Corbyn Become Prime Minister?” in YouGov and Social Europe

Why African Leaders Need a Needs Analysis

Earlier in September 2015, European Commission President presented a comprehensive package of proposal which is meant to help in addressing refugee crisis. The package includes a proposal to initiate €1.8 billion EU Trust Fund for Africa among 6 other proposals. The aim is to improve stability and address root causes of irregular migration flows in some regions of the continent of Africa. The Fund will support these regions to develop better socio-economic opportunities and migration management policies.

On Monday 28 September 2015 I was guest of the programme Newshour of TV Continental News to discuss this EU policy direction for Africa, its possible impact and strategic importance on better socio-economic opportunities and migration management policies.

Here are some of the reactions:

Marcel Vandamme This trust funds are useless. How much funds did they alraedy get? Billions and nothing is changing. Why? Because never there is a “Comte Rendue”! This are blanco cheques and we know where the big part is going to… As long as we dont dont get the transparency of what really is realised and how the money was divided, funds are useless. By the way, this handouts given by countries or big organisations are not more than a guaranty to protect their own interests in this countries. Migration management? They are happy that this refugees are leaving their countries and closes their eyes for the criminals arranging that “migration”. Money dont solve the problem, action does! Yes something has to be done but money is not the cure

Gboyega PapaGee Akerele May your wealth of inspiration never run dry my dear brother and friend Hon. Collins Nweke; I definitely will watch the program…in the very words of the Icon, the legendary Tony Allen in his song ”Boat-Journey”….our dear brothers in the process of running away from poverty and misery, they ended up even in more misery…..its better they think twice before they embark on the boat journey….

Onyekachukwu Ogbu Africans are not relying on the western world grants or handouts, they force their aids on us with the barrel of the gun, the wars in Africa can speaks tells it all, Africans don’t need western aids, we are better off with partnership, trade relationships not handouts, Europe America should stop this evil of economic slavery of the 21st century!!!!! thank you ogbu

Sabrina Flückiger-Strotmann it’s a bit cynical that the west only starts addressing these serious issues now that the refugees knock on our doors, but essentially I believe it’s the right way to push economy and peace and education right where people suffer, so they don’t even have to leave their homeland…

Augusta Uvv Lateness is bad but not showing up at all is worst. With all due appreciation for this interesting topic, the issue of transparency and accountability of the use of this fund remain questionable. EU, America, China, Japan, etc. claim to have released these types of funds to Africa in the past and yet, no desired result achieved thus far. I think it is also interesting to publish the names of the particular countries in Africa who actually received it, the persons/organisations to whom the fund has been entrusted and a follow-up of the use of the fund. You can’t plant a tree, ignore it, and come back years later to see if it bears the desired fruits

Watch the full TVC interview here

A nation with potentials unexplored

In line with established ritual on Independence Day, President Muhammadu Buhari addressed Nigerians in the early hours of today. The President touched on a plethora of issues, of which the one that stuck with me is as follows:

“We have all the attributes of a great nation. We are not there yet because the one commodity we have been unable to exploit to the fullest is unity of purpose. This would have enabled us to achieve not only more orderly political evolution and integration but also continuity and economic progress”

As global citizen of Nigerian origin, my expectation is that President Buhari would see himself as a Transition President with a mission to redraw the architecture of governance within four years and hand over power to a new crop of young and dynamic leaders to stir the ship of state to its desired destination. So far there are signs that he may not be far drawn from this mission.

Here is the full speech of the President as Nigeria celebrate its 55th Independent Anniversary

October 1st is a day for joy and celebrations for us Nigerians, whatever the circumstances we find ourselves in because it is the day, 55 years ago; we liberated ourselves from the shackles of colonialism and began our long march to nationhood and to greatness.

2. No temporary problems or passing challenges should stop us from honouring this day. Let us remind ourselves of the gifts God has given us. Our Creator has bequeathed to us Numbers – Nigeria is the ninth most populated country on the planet. We have in addition arable land; water; forests; oil and gas; coastline; and solid minerals

3. We have all the attributes of a great nation. We are not there yet because the one commodity we have been unable to exploit to the fullest is unity of purpose. This would have enabled us to achieve not only more orderly political evolution and integration but also continuity and economic progress.

4. Countries far less endowed have made greater economic progress by greater coherence and unity of purpose.
“Nonetheless, that we have remained together is an achievement we should all appreciate and try to consolidate. We have witnessed this year a change in our democratic development.

5. The fact that an opposition party replaced an entrenched government in a free and fair election is indicative of the deeper roots of our democratic system. Whatever one’s views are, Nigerians must thank former President Jonathan for not digging-in in the face of defeat and thereby saving the country untold consequences.

6. As I said in my inaugural speech, I bear no ill will against anyone on past events. Nobody should fear anything from me. We are not after anyone. People should only fear the consequences of their actions. I hereby invite everyone, whatever his or her political view to join me in working for the nation.

7. My countrymen and women, every new government inherits problems. Ours was no different. But what Nigerians want are solutions, quick solutions not a recitation of problems inherited. Accordingly, after consultations with the Vice President, senior party leaders and other senior stakeholders, I quickly got down to work on the immediate, medium-term and long-term problems which we must solve if we are to maintain the confidence which Nigerians so generously bestowed on us in the March elections and since then.

8. As you know, I toured the neighbouring countries, marshalled a coalition of armed forces of the five nations to confront and defeat Boko Haram. I met also the G-7 leaders and other friendly presidents in an effort to build an international coalition against Boko Haram. Our gallant armed forces under new leadership have taken the battle to the insurgents, and severely weakened their logistical and infrastructural capabilities. Boko Haram are being scattered and are on the run. That they are resorting to shameless attacks on soft targets such as I.D.P. camps is indicative of their cowardice and desperation. I have instructed security and local authorities to tighten vigilance in vulnerable places.

9. On power, government officials have held a series of long sessions over several weeks about the best way to improve the nation’s power supply in the safest and most cost-effective way. In the meantime, improvement in the power supply is moderately encouraging. By the same token, supply of petrol and kerosene to the public has improved throughout the country. All the early signs are that within months the whole country would begin to feel a change for the better.

10. Preliminary steps have been taken to sanitize NNPC and improve its operations so that the inefficiency and corruption could be reduced to a minimum. Those of our refineries which can be serviced and brought back into partial production would be enabled to resume operations so that the whole sordid business of exporting crude and importing finished products in dubious transactions could be stopped.

11. In addition to NNPC, I have ordered a complete audit of our other revenue generating agencies mainly CBN, FIRS, Customs, NCC, for better service delivery to the nation. Prudent house-keeping is needed now more than ever in view of the sharp decline in world market oil prices. It is a challenge we have to face squarely. But what counts is not so much what accrues but how we manage our resources. We have seen in the last few years how huge resources were mismanaged, squandered and wasted. The new APC government is embarking on a clean up, introducing prudence and probity in public financing.

12. At an early stage, the federal government addressed the issue of salary arrears in many states, a situation capable of degenerating into social unrest. The APC government stepped in to provide short-term support to the debtor states and enabled them to pay off the backlog and restore the livelihood of millions of Nigerians.

13. Fellow Nigerians, there have been a lot of anxiety and impatience over the apparent delay in announcement of ministers. There is no cause to be anxious. Our government set out to do things methodically and properly. We received the handing over notes from the outgoing government only four days before taking over. Consequently, the Joda Transition Committee submitted its Report on the reorganization of Federal Government structure after studying the hand over notes. It would have been haphazard to announce ministers when the government had not finalized the number of ministries to optimally carry the burden of governance.

14. Anyway, the wait is over. The first set of names for ministerial nominees for confirmation has been sent to the senate. Subsequent lists will be forwarded in due course. Impatience is not a virtue. Order is more vital than speed. Careful and deliberate decisions after consultations get far better results. And better results for our country is what the APC government for CHANGE is all about.

15. I would like to end my address this morning on our agenda for CHANGE. Change does not just happen. You and I and all of us must appreciate that we all have our part to play if we want to bring change about. We must change our lawless habits, our attitude to public office and public trust. We must change our unruly behaviour in schools, hospitals, market places, motor parks, on the roads, in homes and offices. To bring about change, we must change ourselves by being law-abiding citizens.

16. Happy Independence Celebrations. Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

Focus on French-Nigerian Bilateral Relations

On invitation of President Francois Hollande of France, President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria arrived France on a State Visit on Monday 14 September 2015. On Day 2 of the bilateral meeting, I was invited by TVC News for a policy analysis of the French-Nigerian bilateral relations. The considerations that shaped my thoughts in the run-up to the TVC NEWS policy analysis were:

the significance of this visit to Nigeria’s diplomacy,
its indications for Nigeria’s foreign policy ahead of appointment of a Minister of Foreign Affairs
a possible boost to the wider regional peace in Africa
a boost for French – Nigerian cultural diplomacy?

The discussion was clustered into three segments except the appointment of a foreign affairs minister. These clusters are diplomacy, trade relations and cultural diplomacy. On the appointment of a foreign affairs minister, there are indications that apart from reducing Mr President’s workload when a minister is appointed, not much difference is expected in the foreign policy direction of the country. Indeed in some quarters, there is the reasoning that delaying appointment of ministers may be a strategy to initially define all policy directions so that when the ministers assume office, they would simply toe the established line. If so, it may not be entirely bad as long as it does not stifle the policy creativity of the ministers.

Another aspect of conversation which I hoped an extra time would allow discussion on is the role of the Diaspora in Nigeria foreign policy. But it was not to be, which is not a big issue. All in all, I thought it was an engaging conversation. Watch the TVC News interview here

Thoughts on Global Refugee Crisis

Earlier this morning (Tuesday 08/09/2015) I was guest of TV Continental to share my thoughts on the global refugee crisis. My points, in summary are as follow: Germany has shown magnanimity in electing to take in 0.8 Million refugees. It is a good sign that Britain has stepped away from non-action to an awfully inadequate commitment. They must do more. The US can’t afford to pretend that this is a problem far from their bed. Like terrorism, there are good reasons for joint global action to deal with current refugee crisis, otherwise more terrorists could be shipped to the West to create more mayhem. Some Middle-East countries are capable of sharing in the burden of receiving some refugees and they must consider doing so as global citizens. Some opportunistic Left-wing groups are using the refugee crisis to question the sense of the Schengen Convention or the EU as a whole. That is foolishness because the schengen arrangement by all standards is one of the best achievements of the EU and must be strengthened, not abolished….To watch the full TV Continental interview click here

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